FXUS62 KJAX 160238
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SHORT TERM...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A SURFACE FRONT FROM JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH SAVANNAH AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH GA. A STRONG HIGH WAS
POSITIONED WELL NORTHWEST OVER MISSOURI AND SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL ON OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST MONTH...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES FROM TODAYS
RECORD HIGH...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...UPPER ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT AS MAIN CORE SHIFTS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND CURRENTLY ADVERTISED LOW END CHANCE POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE FROM 06-12Z. INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA HAS DECREASED WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...CONTINUED LOWER CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH ONLY VCSH. HAVE INCLUDED INCREASING AND GUSTIER SFC
WINDS LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE WIND SHEAR.
&&
.MARINE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL INDICATE BUILDING TREND IN
OFFSHORE SEAS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
INCLUDE TSTM MENTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 62 36 59 / 60 10 10 10
SSI 55 62 47 61 / 40 20 10 10
JAX 56 64 45 62 / 40 30 10 20
SGJ 60 65 55 65 / 40 30 10 20
GNV 58 66 48 67 / 30 30 10 30
OCF 60 69 52 69 / 30 30 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WED TO 8 PM SAT FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WED TO 3 AM THU FOR ALTAMAHA
SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DEESE/CARROLL/MCALLISTER/GUILLET
