FXAK69 PAFG 012233
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT STEMMING FROM 978 MB
LOW NEAR PACD AT 21Z EXTENDS N-S OVER W COAST TO 987 MB LOW OVER
SEWARD PEN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WEAKEN NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN LIFTING
N AND E OVER NW INTERIOR...BROOKS RANGE...AND N SLOPE WED NIGHT
THRU FRI. UPPER TROUGH LINE WITH THIS WILL ALSO SLIDE OVER ALL
BUT FAR SERN INTERIOR THU/THU NITE. ANOTHER DEEP LOW WILL MOVE N
INTO S-CENTRAL BERING FRI...AMPLIFYING EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER
RIDGING AHEAD OF IT OVER ERN GULF AK AND SRN AK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE
UPPER RIDGE HAS HIGH RMOP PREDICTABILITY DAYS 5-7...AND WILL RETURN
MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO ALL BUT N SLOPE THIS WEEKEND.

W COAST: DECAYING LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL 
SNOWS ALONG COAST TONITE. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONITE/WED AS SYSTEM FILLS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH
OVER SEWARD PEN AND ST LAWRENCE INTO WED NITE. MAY NEED WINTER 
STORM OR BLIZ WATCH FOR ZONE 213 FRI AS FRONT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
MOVES N. PRECIP. WITH THIS COULD MIX WITH RAIN THOUGH BY EARLY SAT.

N SLOPE: -SHSN WRN ARCTIC COAST TONITE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD E WED THROUGH
THU AS W COAST SYSTEM LIFTS N AND E. LEE-SIDE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
MACKENZIE BAY WED WILL INCREASE WESTERLY GRADIENT INTO THU...SO WILL
SEE BLSN ISSUES ZONE 204 THEN...BUT NO BLIZZARD EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.

INTERIOR: SLEW OF WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR 226 
WILL END AT 01Z. SOUTHERLY CHINOOK FLOW IS EASING AND WINDS SHOULD
ALL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY THEN. SLIGHT COOLING TONITE AND WED
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. SNOW ZONE 221 WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING AS FRONTAL BAND WEAKENS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. WILL
REMAIN FOR WED. BUT AS UPPER TROUGH FROM W COAST SYSTEM MOVES THRU 
THU...BRIEF COOLING TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPS. WILL OCCUR...AS WELL AS
SOME -SN TO ALL BUT FAR SERN INTERIOR. COULD SEE ANOTHER BIG WARMUP
THOUGH LATE SAT THROUGH MON IF MODELS VERIFY...BUT WITH CLOSED UPPER
RIDGE TO S...NO CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH AK RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ225.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAR DEC 09