FXUS65 KGJT 081131
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
431 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...HERE IT IS. JET INDUCED STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING
ENHANCED CLOUDS QUICKLY TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT HAS SLAMMED THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
WITH THE LA PLATA EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND DURANGO...WITH 12-20 INCHES NEW SNOW REPORTED IN LA PLATA
COUNTY. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ALSO REPORTED IN THE IGNACIO-
BAYFIELD AREA. CORTEZ AIRPORT HAS REPORTED A SOUTH WIND GUST TO
53MPH AT 356 AM. THIS COLD UNSTABLE AIR WILL SWEEP SW TO NE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOON. EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND THIS EVENING
WITH 25F OF COOLING TO OCCUR AT MTN TOP LEVEL. HEAVIEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHIFT TO NW-FACING SLOPES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS INCLUDING THE
NW SAN JUAN MTNS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
ICE FOG POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER VERY COLD
CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW FIELD. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE
MTNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TRAVEL TODAY IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED WITH DANGEROUS WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. YOU CAN SEE AND SUBMIT SNOW AND WIND REPORTS
FROM OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE
DAY.  BE CAREFUL OUT THERE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOWFALL WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER SETTLING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY...WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WAVES EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES TO DEAL
WITH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE KEYING ON A MORE
PRONOUNCED WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS OVER THE REGION STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK
POPS FOR NOW CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AGAIN LOOKS
PLENTIFUL...AND WITH ACTIVE WAVE AND JET PASSING THROUGH...WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED. TROUGH PASSES ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNING...KEEPING SNOW SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER A COLD START TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODIFY ALTHOUGH READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
ROCKIES...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONDITIONS WILL BLANKET
EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH TODAY...ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH VALLEY AIRPORTS SUCH AS KEGE...KASE...KHDN AND KTEX.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR...
SHIFTING TO NW BY 18Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ003-004-
     006>008-010-011-013-014-020>023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ001-002-005.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ009-012-017>019.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ022-025-027-
     029.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ023-024.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....JDC
AVIATION.....TGJT