FXUS62 KMLB 101434
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
934 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ENTERED VOLUSIA AND LAKE 
COUNTIES ALREADY THIS MORNING. FALLING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WITH 
60S ALREADY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER IN 
THE DAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING 
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT KLEE ALREADY. THIS SUDDEN CHANGE 
IN WIND DIRECTION WITH THE GUSTS COULD BE OF CONCERN FOR BOATERS 
ACROSS AREA LAKES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS...NEAR SHORE WATERS OF 
THE WESTERN ATLC. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE 
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS A DROP IN 
VISIBILITY WITH SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS 
OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. 
MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD THUNDER WITH A FEW 
STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED THIS TO 
THE GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO REFLECT THIS. ANY SURFACE 
HEATING ACROSS OUR SOUTH WILL MAKE INSTABILITY MODEST AND COULD ALSO 
SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION. 
TEMPERATURE DROPS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL 
HANDLE IN HOURLY GRIDS AS NECESSARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF 
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH...HAVE ALREADY BEEN ESTABLISHED OR WILL 
HAVE BEEN REACHED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRATUS DECK BEHIND 
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY MAKING FOR A 
DREARY APPEARANCE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT WITH 
LIGHT RAIN LINGERING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW 
DAYS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S 
ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS 
ASSOC WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT 
WITH LIGHT/MOD PRECIPITATION. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 
ORLANDO THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS ASSOC WITH FRONT HAVE BEEN OBSVD 
TO 25 KTS ALREADY AT KLEE AND GUSTS ASSOC WITH CONVECTION COULD 
REACH 35-40 KTS SOUTHWARD...ESP IF ANY SFC HEATING IS REALIZED TO 
PROMOTE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LINE OF SHRA'S WITH BOUNDARY 
WILL REACH KMLB-KVRB SOUTHWARD EARLY/MID AFTN. CIGS BEHIND FRONT 
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW 020-030 THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS REGARDING WINDS (15-20 KTS)...BUT WILL HAVE TO 
MONITOR FOR AN UPGRADE (FOR WINDS) IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. THE 
BOUNDARY IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL 
WATERS THRU MID MORNING AND BEHIND IT GUSTY N-NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 
PAST 20 KTS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
THE DAY. BUOY 41009 IS REPORTING A DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF AROUND 4 
SECONDS MAKING FOR BUMPY SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH 
THE NORTH SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SEAS MAY BUILD 5-6 FT 
OFFSHORE...ESP NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND 
ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FROM THE CAPE 
SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION...ESP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO CONTAIN 
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/KELLY