FXAK68 PAFC 022215
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1203 PM AKST WED DEC 2 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON PRIMARY
WEATHER FEATURES.  CURRENT SURFACE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY IS PROG BY
BOTH MODELS TO MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT...THE GENERAL IMPLICATIONS ARE
SIMILAR.  WITH REGARD TO THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BOTH MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE GFS SOME 200 NM TO
THE WEST AND 5 TO 7 MB DEEPER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY A BROAD TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL WITH COOL AIR WEST OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE
TEENS. RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BERING TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAJOR
NORTH PACIFIC LOW STARTING TO IMPACT CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO AK PEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF WIND AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH RIDGE OVER THE GULF MAIN INTEREST WILL BE
IN THE BERING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN FROM SAND POINT TO KODIAK ISLAND AND
VERY STRONG SOUTH TO EAST WINDS CONTINUING EAST OF 175W FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS FRIDAY ADAK WEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SEE PACKAGE FOR DETAILS
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP DEC 09