FXUS64 KLCH 010306
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
906 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
HAS PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 3K FEET. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY BY LOWERING THEM OVER THE INLAND ZONES.

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OCCURRING OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH CONDITIONS NEARING SCA OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AND INCREASE BY
MORNING AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG
THE END OF A STALLED COLD FRONT OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AND
MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
ADVISORIES OVER THE MARINE ZONES ALONE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA FOR MOST OF
THIS EVENING. GOING OPTIMISTIC ON THINNING THIS LAYER OUT BY
05-06Z...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ONLY FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO...AS THE
LOW ACROSS THE GULF BRINGS BACK MVFR CEILINGS/SHRA BY 12Z...AND
PREDOMINATE RA BY 18Z TUE.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/ 

SYNOPSIS...
COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE
DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
AIR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER NWRN MEXICO...BRINGING MOIST SWRLY FLOW OVER THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
COOL WET WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DESPITE A
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE RAIN TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER TX. IN
ADDITION...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION IN
THE SHORT TERM WHICH ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT. WITH THE AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW...SHOULD SEE NERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR COASTAL FLOODING. IN ADDITION...FORECASTED TIDES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW 3 FEET AT THIS TIME SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR ADVISORY.

ALSO...EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY TUESDAY...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ALL THIS MESS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LOW LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
AS TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE LOWER 30S. 

MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...TRIES TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT! HOWEVER...THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS AND
ISN'T CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS HAD DECENT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE.

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH SEAS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF UP TO 9
FEET BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
EAST OF CAMERON BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A GALE WATCH FOR THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF CAMERON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  52  46  58  38 /  20  70  70  40  10 
KBPT  48  51  43  58  37 /  20  70  80  40  10 
KAEX  43  52  45  53  35 /  10  60  80  60  20 
KLFT  46  53  48  60  38 /  20  70  80  40  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO 
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA 
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 
     20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM 
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM 
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL 
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, 
     LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM 
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 
     NM.

&&

$$