FXUS64 KMOB 241724 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1124 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 6 PM FOR
ALL OF INLAND SE MS AS WELL AS CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...AND MOBILE
COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. CURRENTLY WATCHING A SQUALL LINE STEADILY
PROGRESS EAST...NOW MOVING INTO SW MS AND SE LA. THE LINE IS A FEW
HOURS AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE...SO THE LATEST TIMING HAS THE LINE
AFFECTING SE MS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...ENTERING INTO SW AL BETWEEN
2-4PM AND BY 4-6PM INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MUCAPES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINE.
HOWEVER...DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED IS MAKING UP FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS ONGOING WITH THE LINE. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT (AROUND 600 M2/S2) TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH FOR SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE SFC. DO THINK THE
MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
COAST...WHERE LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RUNNING IN
THE LOW 50S IN THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS...HELPING TO REDUCE
THE THREAT THERE. EVEN IF SEVERE WINDS DO NOT OCCUR...WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
PM. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...UNFORTUNATELY WE ARE RUNNING SOMEWHAT BLIND DUE TO THE LACK
OF REPORTS FROM 42007 AND 42012. HOWEVER...42039 HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ALL MORNING AND BELIEVE THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS...HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 9 PM. MOBILE
BAY WILL STAY UNDER A SCA...BUT OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. ALSO HAVE 10-13 WAVES OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES...
AND THESE WAVES WILL BE BREAKING ACROSS THE BEACHES CAUSING SOME
BEACH EROSION AND A HIGHER THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT. WINDS VEER TO THE WEST TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STAY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. 34/JFB
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND
WILCOX.
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
ROSA.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND MOBILE BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
