FXUS65 KFGZ 112246
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH 
THIS EVENING. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND 
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF 
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. A THIRD STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING 
STRONG WINDS...AS WELL AS AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW...TO MUCH OF THE 
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A BIT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO 
PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT 
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER MANY AREAS. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE 
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING TO AN INCH...WITH LOCAL AREAS 
OF NEAR TWO INCHES POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF...AND OVER THE 
KAIBAB PLATEAU. 

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A S/WV RIDGE TRAVERSES THE 
STATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV SEEN CURRENTLY ENTERING THE LOS ANGELES 
BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND 
IT IS DYNAMICALLY A BIT STRONGER. WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 
AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE BEST AMOUNTS WILL JUST NORTH OF I-40 IN 
COCONINO COUNTY. AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
WAVE. 

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF 
THE THIRD AND FINAL WAVE DUE SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE STRONGEST 
OF THE THREE...AND WILL CONTAIN VERY STRONG WINDS. A DECENT COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MODERATE 
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS 
MUCH AS FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
FEATURE. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW 
ABOVE 6500 FEET. MODELS STILL ARE NOT QUITE LATCHED ON TO THIS 
SYSTEM...SO THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE...STAY TUNED.

NEXT WEEK...FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST. DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW 
CEILINGS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM AROUND FLAGSTAFF 
NORTHWARD. AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS 
ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO NORTHERN AZ FROM THE WEST 
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE 
FROM AROUND 4-5 KFT NEAR THE UT BORDER TO 6 KFT OVER THE WHITE 
MOUNTAINS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC......................PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER.......ONTON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.