FXUS61 KAKQ 290151
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
851 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CRNT FCST IN GUD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS MADE TO GRIDS THIS EVE.
SOME HIGH CLDS APPRCH FROM THE S LATE...BUT STILL XPCT A MAINLY CLR
NITE AHEAD. LOWS IN THE 30S TO NR 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CST SUN...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A
MILDER SW SFC FLO. THERE WILL BE INCRSNG HI CLDS FM THE WSW DURING
SUN...WITH A MSTLY SNY SKY BECMG PRTLY SNY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPR 60S INLAND/PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC.

CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCRS AND THICKEN FM NW TO SE SUN NGT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRNT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE MTNS. COLD FRNT WITH SHRAS
(MSTLY ALNG AND BEHIND THE FRNT) WILL CROSS THE AREA MON AFTN INTO
MON NGT. DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH PCPN WITH THIS FRNT...WITH QPF AMTS
BETWEEN .10 AND .25 INCH. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S.

HI PRES AND COOLER TEMPS WILL RETURN ON TUE. PRTLY TO MSTLY SNY
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE UPR LVL SYSTEM MID 
WK OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND ITS PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS 
TO THE E/NE INTO THE ERN CONUS. SEEMS THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST 
TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA AND CONSENSUS HAS LEAD TO GOING 
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN WITH BACKING OF ITS PERFORMANCE OVER 
THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. PLUS THE GFS HAS BEEN 
LEANING TWRDS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH H50 FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE 
DELAYED INITIAL TIMING OF PRECIP INTO THE RGN AS IT WILL TAKE TIME 
TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIP LOOKS TO START TO SPREAD INTO 
THE RGN WED AFTN/EVE AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT INITIALLY 
(OVERRUNNING) AS IT SPREADS SW TO NE INTO WED NIGHT. BULK OF PRECIP 
LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE OVRNT HRS AND INTO THU AM BEFORE TAPERING 
OFF LATE DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FURTHER DELAY IN 
TIMING OF PRECIP...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT 
RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE RGN WITH AMOUNTS IN GENERAL RANGING FROM 1-3 
INCHES (W/LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMTS POSSIBLE). GRANTED PRECIP 
POTENTIAL COULD CHANGE BUT THIS IS THE FIRST INITIAL GUESS OF WHAT 
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING. THIS WILL CHANGE IF SYSTEM BECOMES MORE 
STAGNANT/SLOWER EAST PROGRESSION...WHICH SO FAR THE TREND OF THE H50 
FLOW CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN/INTENSIFY AT MID LVLS AS THE EVENT DRAWS 
CLOSER. IF THIS OCCURS...WHICH ALREADY WE ARE ANTICIPATING...PRECIP 
AMOUNTS MAY LIKELY BE MORE. SOME OF THE NRN STREAM FLOW WILL PHASE 
INTO THE SRN STREAM FLOW LATE WK AND INTO THE WKND BEHIND 
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR BLO NRML TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING
AT THE TAF SITES. SW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE SUN MRNG. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SUN AFTN/NIGHT. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MON BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND A CHC OF RAIN BY AFTN/EVEN. THE FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST
BY MON NIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL TAKE OVER TUE AS WINDS BECOME NWW. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THU
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR PSBL.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL DROP SCA FOR NRN CSTL WTRS AS WNDS/WAVES CONT TO DMNSH.

WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND START TO INCREASE SUN AFTN/NIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT WX SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME. NEXT HEADLINES LOOK TO OCCUR LATE MON/TUE
MRNG PERIOD AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE RGN TUE
NIGHT. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW
MID/LATE WK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR/TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...CCW/LSA