FXUS65 KLKN 230002
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
402 PM PST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING AWAY FROM THE SLIVER STATE
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS CLOSE TO THE UTAH BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW AND DOMINATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE
REGION STAGE RIGHT AT PRESENT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...AND SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED WHAT
REMAINED OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
4PM. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY AND THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE IN
ELKO COUNTY...WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ACCENTUATED BY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 50 MPH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 7PM OR
SO AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FAST LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH
WE DON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES JUST YET. 

RIDGE TAKES HOLD TOMORROW WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. STRONG
INVERSION LIKELY TO SET UP WILL KEEP VALLEYS SUNNY...DRY AND COLD.
MOST AREAS WILL NOT REACH THE FREEZING POINT. WITH PRIMED
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH FRESH SNOW COVER UNDER THE
RIDGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT /AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/ EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS BOTH OF THESE
NIGHTS...FOLLOWED BY SUNNY AND COLD DAYS WHERE SOME PLACES WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO EXCEED 20 DEGREES. 

MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IS FOG
POTENTIAL. STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP WILL ALLOW A STABLE INVERSION
TO LIMIT MIXING AND WINDS...AND WILL ALSO PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH SNOW MELT TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FOR
FOG. THE CAVEAT WILL BE AROUND ELKO AIRPORT...WHERE GEOTHERMAL
VENTS MAY CAUSE VERY LIMITED FOG COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT PLACED ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS...BUT ITS
SOMETHING THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. RCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER NEVADA. AS A RESULT...RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD
NIGHTS/EARLY MORNINGS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PARTS OF ELKO
COUNTY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. AND THESE BRUTALLY
COLD TEMPS WILL EXTEND WELL INTO EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES
ALTHOUGH ELKO COUNTY CAN ANTICIPATE THE WORST OF IT. THE TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD. IN THE VALLEYS...AN INVERSION WILL
TRAP MUCH OF THE COLD AIR...KEEPING THE DAYS COLD...WITH HIGHS
RANGING IN THE UPPER-TWENTIES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LKN
CWA. WHEREAS HIGHS WILL BE THE MID- THIRTIES OVER NORTHERN NYE. ON
MONDAY...A LOW WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE...WITH A WEAK VORT LOBE
MOVING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS...ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PLACING AND TIMING.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MATERIALIZE SOUTH OF THE LKN
CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. NUDGED THE POPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND NEXT
TUESDAY. PS

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST PAST THE TAF 
SITES. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN. LIGHT SNOWS WILL 
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. THE PRIMARY CONCERN 
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE 
INTO THIS EVENING. CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY LIFTED AT WMC...AND EKO. 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PS

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN NYE 
COUNTY.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES 
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY.

&&

$$

93/97/97