FXUS66 KMFR 282102
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 PM PST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. DRY WEATHER 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A 500 HPA RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REGION. 28.12Z ECMWF IS STILL THE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE 28.12Z GFS 
AND 28.12Z CANADIAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OREGON. HAVE 
THROWN OUT THIS MODEL SOLUTION AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THE 
OTHER TWO MODELS MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 
DIURNAL FOG IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS LOOK LIKELY EACH MORNING AS A 
TEMPERATURE INVERSION STRENGTHENS OVER THIS AREA. THE FOG COULD MAKE 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON EXACTLY 
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE EACH DAY. GENERALLY 
SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST OF 
THE AREA FOR HIGHS AND 20S TO 30S FOR LOWS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL 
ZONES WHERE MILDER LOWS ARE EXPECTED AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES WHERE TEENS ARE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM. BOTH 28.12Z GFS AND 28.12Z 
CANADIAN INDICATE A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. 28.12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND 
PUSHES IT ONSHORE FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT 
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 
12Z-15Z IN THE ROGUE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AS WELL AS INTO THE UMPQUA 
BASIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VFR 
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS 
     UNTIL 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR 
PZZ376.

$$

SHORT=KS
LONG/FIRE=MO
MARINE=SN