FXUS64 KTSA 262037
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. DESPITE EXISTING SNOW COVER AND INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW VOID AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FEW FLURRIES ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT 88D TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS MAY BE COMING TO AN
END SOON. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FLURRIES PAST 00Z.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND TO HAVE LESS OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE. PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY...AS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. HELD ONTO LOW POPS TUESDAY
MORNING IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE GREATEST
CHANCE...WITH POPS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A MAJOR STORM...IT IS LIKELY THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE PRECIP TYPE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE EVENT.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE THICKNESS/TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HOWEVER SO DETAILS ARE SKETCHY RIGHT
NOW.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR TOWARD
NEW YEARS...AS NORTH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW MOVES ATOP THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  32  19  37 /  10   0   0   0 
FSM   24  36  23  41 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   21  36  20  38 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   15  31  12  35 /  10   0   0   0 
FYV   20  29  18  35 /  10   0   0   0 
BYV   20  29  19  36 /  10   0   0   0 
MKO   20  33  20  38 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   17  29  15  36 /  10   0   0   0 
F10   20  33  20  37 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   26  41  24  43 /   0   0  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....22