FXUS62 KJAX 081441 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHARPEN UP ALONG THE FL/GA BORDER 
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT OVER THE SERN U.S. AND 
ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT ALONG AND 
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
TSTMS OVER SRN AL AND PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE 
FORECAST AREA. MODELS/RADAR TRENDS STILL POINT TOWARD SERN GA HAVING 
THE MOST IMPACT FROM THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TODAY AS ENERGY SLIDES ALONG 
THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS SERN GA WHILE ISOLD TO SCTD 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NERN FL. MAX TEMPS WILL SURGE INTO THE 
70S ACRS NERN FL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE A SLOW INCREASE INTO 
THE 60S IS EXPECTED ACRS SERN GA. FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL PULL 
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR AND VERY LITTLE IF 
ANY PCPN IS EXPECTED AFTER ANY REMAINING EVENING RAINS DISSIPATE. 
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHOWERS WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CIGS AS THE WARM FRONT 
LIFTS THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AM WITH AN IMPROVING TREND TO VFR 
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
TONIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO 
PESSIMISTIC THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND WILL KEEP CONDS A BIT MORE 
OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS 
BISECTING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT 
RANGE AND SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO 
THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND 
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  58  75  46 /  70  30  60  20 
SSI  69  65  76  52 /  50  40  40  30 
JAX  73  65  79  52 /  40  20  60  40 
SGJ  76  67  79  58 /  30  20  60  50 
GNV  78  63  78  53 /  20  10  60  60 
OCF  79  65  81  55 /  10  10  60  60 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM 
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/PRESNALL