FXUS64 KMRX 302009
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
309 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...RADAR INDICATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TRACKING INTO NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA ASSOCIATED WITH 
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE 
EARLY TONIGHT SO WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR 
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO 
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR 
TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURE 
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FOR TONIGHT AND 
TUESDAY.  

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS HAVE SOME 
DISAGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTS THE 
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT AGREE WE WILL SEE SOME 
SIGNIFICANT RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS OVER SOME OF THE 
TERRAIN AREAS.  WHILE STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...LOOKS LIKE 
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WE WILL SEE STRONG WINDS IN THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAY BE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY BRINGING 
STRONG WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL.  WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH 
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY.  AS FOR PRECIP...WILL CARRY CAT POPS 
SOUTH...SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TUE NIGHT AND CAT ALL ZONES WED.  COLDER 
AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WED NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BEFORE IT GETS COLD 
ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT AND AT THIS TIME DOES 
NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR THU INTO FRIDAY 
AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES 
AS WELL AS WINDS LOOK LESS THAN IDEAL.  12Z GFS WANTS TO BRING A 
SHORT WAVE THROUGH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH 
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE 12Z ECMWF DOES SOMETHING 
SIMILAR...BUT GIVEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR NOW WILL KEEP 
POPS FAIRLY LOW AND CONFINED TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  LOTS OF 
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 
FOR MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             35  58  41  55  42 /   0   0  90 100  60 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  33  55  41  55  43 /   0   0  50  90  70 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  55  41  52  43 /   0   0  50  90  70 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              30  55  34  53  43 /   0   0  20  90  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...JOHNSON...MCMINN...NW 
     BLOUNT...NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST 
     GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...
     UNICOI...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

VA...NONE.

&&

$$

GH/LDW