FXUS64 KMOB 291022
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SHORT TERM...ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING...FORECASTERS SEE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM/TROF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. SEEING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS THOUGH ADVANCING QUICKLY EASTWARD
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUS...WILL
CALL FOR SKY CONDITION TO CLOUD UP AGAIN IN THE NEAR TERM. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH ITS AXIS
OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST...DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO WARM TO NEAR 70 MOST AREAS...EXPECT RIGHT ALONG THE
BEACH FRONT...WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF KEEPS DAILY HIGHS MORE
MODIFIED INTO THE MID 60S. NIGHTTIME MINS IN THE MID 50S. NO RAIN
TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. TONIGHT THOUGH...MOISTURE
MODIFIES AND MAY GET SOME WEAK LAYER LIFT OPERATING ON IT TO
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER THE
INTERIOR OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA ZONES. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. /10
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MAY START OFF RAINY...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SEND SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS. BY TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL STALL AS A CUTOFF LOW
MOVING EAST OVER THE TRANS PECOS AREA OF WEST TEXAS BEGINS TO HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE GULF EAST OF TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND LIKELY BRING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
HEAVY COASTAL RAIN EVENT. SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING WHEN THE GFS SPEEDS UP AND TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH THE EURO SLOWER AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HPC ALREADY HAS A
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSTED FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE ALABAMA
AND FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES TO BE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT EASING UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE HAS UP TO
5 INCHES OR SO FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD ALONG THE COAST FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INLAND. IF THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAIN REMAINS WITHIN 30 TO 40 MILES OF THE COAST FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW PLACES WILL OCCUR...PLUS WITH A SPRING TIDE
AND A STOUT SOUTHERLY WIND THE BAYOUS AND BAYS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL WITHOUT THE ADDED RAIN RUNOFF. /11
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST OF THE AREA. MAY BE SOME LINGERING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY REMAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S MOST PLACES
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...[12Z ISSUANCE]...FIRST BATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT WITH MORE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN VFR
CRITERIA THROUGH 30.00Z. CIGS FORECAST TO LOWER TO A BLEND OF
MVFR/IFR LEVELS AFTER 30.09Z. LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24HRS. /10
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BRINGS A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW TO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS EARLY
ON. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT AND STRENGTHEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO WORSEN
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD BE SEEING GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THIS AT SOME OF OUR DATA COLLECTION PLATFORMS OVER THE OPEN
GULF. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. DUE TO DURATION AND STRONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH...SEAS BUILD...RANGING FROM 7 FEET NEAR
SHORE...UPWARDS OF AROUND 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN...WE ARE MOVING INTO A WELL DEFINED
SPRING TIDAL CYCLE AS WELL. AS STRONG WINDS TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME COINCIDENT WITH OCCURRENCE
OF HIGH TIDE...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH WATER PILE UP RESULTING IN
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. CONSIDERING THIS...WE WILL FORECAST 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF VISIBILITY
REDUCING HEAVY RAINS. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HUMIDITY ABOVE 35 PERCENT THE NEXT 3 TO 4
DAYS. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NEAR THE COAST..POSSIBLY STORM TOTALS
UP TO 5 INCHES. WINDS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MORE EASTERLY WELL INLAND.
/11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 70 56 70 49 / 00 05 40 30
PENSACOLA 68 56 73 52 / 00 05 30 30
DESTIN 67 58 72 54 / 00 05 20 20
EVERGREEN 69 51 67 42 / 00 10 40 20
WAYNESBORO 68 52 62 42 / 00 20 60 20
CAMDEN 68 51 63 41 / 00 10 50 20
CRESTVIEW 71 51 74 45 / 00 05 30 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
