FXUS61 KCLE 051627
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1127 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUD COVER LOOKS AS IF IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED WITH SOME STRATO-CU WEST OF THE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST COAST STORM SYSTEM. HAVE WORDED
THE ZONES AS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-71.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT
REMAINS OVER LAKE ERIE. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH LAKE
COUNTY WITH A LIGHT DUSTING TO MAYBE AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN PERSISTENT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE NORTH OF
I-90. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS BAND TO COME ONSHORE.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUD COVER CHANGES HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUIET
WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE STILL SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY. EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY SNOW AND MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW OF THE YEAR. THIS SHOULDN'T BE A BIG DEAL BUT A INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE SOUTH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. BIG STORY THOUGH...IS A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP BUT THIS SHOULD ALL CHANGE TO RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS LOW. GFS
SEEMS TO BRING TOO MUCH COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND PREFER THE
WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE TRANSITION FROM
MIXED PRECIP TO ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. 925 MB
RAMP UP TO 45 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE LOW. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SOME SORT OF WIND
HEADLINE. SIMILAR TO THE STORM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...EXPECT PRECIP
TO SHUT OFF QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW. WESTERN AREAS COULD BE DRY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT THE ECMWF TRIES TO BUILD THE
RIDGE IN MUCH QUICKER ON THURSDAY. IT IS A TOUGH CALL ON THAT RIGHT
NOW. DIDN'T MOVED THE HIGH IN THAT QUICKLY SO KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT
GOING. DID LOWER THE POPS A LITTLE BASED ON SOME DRIER AIR. NONE THE
LESS WITH THE FLOW MORE WESTERLY THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THE SNOW BELT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS THE TIMING OF WHEN THE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY ARE IN
QUESTION AND OF COURSE IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY THAT WILL CUT
DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW.
THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A WARM FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE 30 PERCENT
CHANCE. THIS IS A TYPICAL PATTERN AFTER A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM OK...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES...MORE TO
MAKES TEMPERATURES COOLER. THE GFS IS A LOT COLDER THAN THE
ECMWF...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE COLDER GFS BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. RADAR INDICATING SOME RETURNS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOST OF THIS IS CLOUDS AND MOST PRECIPITATION IS
NOT REACHING ON THE GROUND.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME STRATOCUMULUS...MVFR
AT TIMES FROM CLE EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER ERIE COUNTY PA TONIGHT...IT WOULD BE LIGHT
WITH MAINLY UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.
ELSEWHERE THE MID CLOUD AND CIRRUS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP...STILL
BE VFR THOUGH.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE LAKE WILL BE HEADLINE FREE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THEN THINGS
WILL CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
OVER THE LAKE WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NEAR THE LAKE MONDAY WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY
AND THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT TO MAKE WAY FOR A VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS AGREE QUITE A BIT WITH THIS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A HIGH END GALE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE WNW SO NOT REAL CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT LOW WATER BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS FORECASTED
SOME LOW WATER SHOULD OCCUR ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
