FXUS61 KCTP 280304
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ALLEGHENIES WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE ARE HELPING BRING THE CHILLIEST
READINGS WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS INTO THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DOVE OUT OF THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND NOW ARE
STREAKING TWD THE MARYLAND BORDER WHILE GENERALLY BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED. OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY IS RATHER SCATTERED AND SHUD
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT...FAVORING THE LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE AREAS.
WITH THE HIGH FCST TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SAT...LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO
ACTIVITY LEAVING THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND TO BE DRY.

ADDNL SNOW ACCUMS SHUD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO NEGLIGIBLE SIDE SO NO
SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT MAX AND RIDGING PRESSING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL DIMINISH THE SHSN IN THE NW. THE LAURELS MAY HOLD ON
IN THE LAURELS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT UNTIL THE INVERSION MAKES IT
INTO THERE. MINS WON/T MOVE FAR FROM CURRENTS THANKS TO CLOUDS AND
WELL-MIXED BNDRY LYR. 

ANY REMAINING SHSN/FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...AS
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO JUST
10MPH W/GUSTS TO 20MPH BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS LINGER IN THE NW UNTIL 9
OR 10 AM. THEN...OTHER THAN THE MID CLOUDS SLIDING ACROSS WITH A
WARM UP ALOFT...LITTLE ELSE WILL BE OF MENTION. WILL PUT HIGHS IN
THE U30S IN THE NRN MTS BUT ALL THE WAY NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS NICE...AS MILD TEMPS FLOOD THE AREA...AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES AIM AT W PA.

STILL LOOKING AT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY FOR DEER SEASON...
BUT AT THIS POINT...THINK AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

MODELS NOW SHOW DECENT PUSH OF COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE...THUS MAINLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MTS. 

DID TAKE MENTION OF RAIN OUT FOR LATE WED AFT...MODELS NOT IN
A RUSH TO BRING CUTOFF OUT OF THE SW NOW.

THINK WHATEVER ENERGY COMES OUT OF THE SW ON THU WILL RESULT IN A
FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEM INSTEAD OF A MAJOR STORM...THUS THINK PCPN
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NW. CENTRAL
PA WILL LIKELY BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM ANYWAY.

COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR LATER THU INTO FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY SOME
LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY TYPICAL LATE NOV PATTERN WITH MVFR CLDS IN JST/BFD WITH
OCCASIONAL FORAYS INTO IFR. THE NOTABLE THING TONIGHT WILL BE THE
VERY GUSTY WNW /290-310/ WINDS. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
12-19KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT IN THE W BUT CLOSER TO 35 OR EVEN
40KTS IN THE EAST - CLOSER TO KIPT/KSEG/KMDT/KLNS. THE MIXED
NATURE WILL MEAN LOTS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE BUT NOT LLWS.

VORT MAX MOVES BY THIS EVENING IN THE NW /KBFD/ AND SHOULD
DECREASE THE WDSPRD SHSN THERE TO SCT SHSN AFT 05Z. KJST HOWEVER WILL
SHORTLY RETURN TO IFR AS SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
STAY THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HI PRES BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SAT AM. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE SHSN AND DECREASE THE
WINDS SOME. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STAY 10KT WITH G22KT PSBL FOR THE
DAYLIGHT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. 
MON...MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA. 
TUE...IFR/MVFR W IN POST FRONTAL SHRA. VFR E.
WED...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO/GARTNER