FXUS64 KLCH 300522
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AT 30/05Z ACROSS NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSHV TO AROUND KCXO.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE KAEX-KBPT-KLCH TAF SITES BETWEEN 30/09Z-
12Z AND THE KLFT-KARA TAF SITES AROUND 30/14Z-15Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP A FEW HOURS
BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR RANGE WITH THE
SHOWERS.
A BAND OF MODERATE SHOWERS...AND MAYBE ISOLATED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO AT
TIMES IFR. RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY 30/18Z WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION POSSIBLE NUISANCE
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST.
THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET...NO REASON TO UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH SWRLY FLOW SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER SE TX AND SW LA. A COLD FRONT SITS POISED NW OF THE
AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM SAINT LOUIS TO MENA ARK TO WACO
TX. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACRS NE TX
INTO SRN AND CNTRL ARK.
DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING PAST AN
AEX-LCH LINE BY 12Z MON...AND EXITING THE AREA 18Z MON. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NWRN ZONES...SPREADING EAST ACRS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
NWRN ZONES WHERE CAA DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE SERN ZONES WILL SEE MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S WITH FROPA NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH...USHERING IN COOLER AIR. A COOL CLOUDY DAY WILL BE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A RATHER MESSY START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EAST ACRS TX. THE SFC FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN THE WRN GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD SRN LA. IN ADDITION...THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF...PRODUCING STRONG NERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NW GULF. DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...MAY HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH COASTAL
FLOODING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS WINDS LOOK TO KEEP AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT
FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AND MAYBE
HIGHER TOTALS OF UP TO THREE INCHES ALONG THE LA COAST. WILL WAIT
AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE AS THIS IS STILL ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS
OUT.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TO
SEE DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY...WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
WINDS...ROUGH SEAS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY AND ADVANCES NORTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 60 66 49 56 48 / 90 50 20 70 70
KBPT 59 65 49 55 47 / 90 40 20 70 70
KAEX 57 62 42 53 45 / 90 50 20 60 70
KLFT 63 67 50 58 48 / 40 80 20 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE
LAKE...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
