FXUS65 KABQ 081825
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HIGHLIGHTS SINCE SNOW HAS
ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE A
FACTOR. CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST...AND BOTH
SEGMENTS OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE AREAS WERE REPLACED BY EITHER WIND
ADVISORIES...GENERALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...OR HIGH
WIND WARNINGS...CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EAST. APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST
GUST SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN 71 MPH AT KSRR. BAND OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. RAISED POPS THERE...BUT EXPECT THE
BAND TO MOVE THROUGH VERY QUICKLY. NEW HIGHLIGHTS ARE ALREADY OUT.
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...651 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009...
DEBATED THIS FOR AWHILE TO PONDER THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION...BUT
FINALLY DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE CENTRAL
NM...ZONES 507 AND 519...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BY SEVERAL HOURS
TO 23Z. WOULD HAVE TRIMMED IT BACK TO 18Z DUE TO QUICKER ENDING OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS AFFECTED ZONES...BUT THAT WOULD HAVE
LEFT WIND ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS AND DID NOT WANT
TWO ADVISORIES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FCST...POTENTIALLY TOO
CONFUSING FOR CUSTOMERS. TO ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE ARGUMENT...DID
NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING A SNOWFALL BASED HIGHLIGHT OUT
THROUGH 03Z...THOUGH DO FEEL THAT WAS THE BEST CALL TO MAKE BACK
EARLIER IN THIS EVENT. DAY CREW STILL MAY WANT TO CONSIDER WHAT TO
DO WITH THIS LATE THIS MORNING.
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.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MST TUE DEC 8 2009...
BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE INCLUDE SEVERAL ISSUES.
THOUGH THE CURRENT INHERITED PACKAGE LOOKS REALLY GOOD IN MOST
ASPECTS...SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS THAN EXPECTED ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF CENTRAL NM MAY AT LAST MINUTE NEED ADDRESSING AS FAR
AS WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS...BUT MAY IF NEEDED HAVE TO UPDATE AFTER
MAIN ISSUANCE IF THOSE ADJUSTMENTS WOULD OTHERWISE CAUSE MAIN
PACKAGE TO BE LATE. ALSO LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT PCPN ENDING WELL
BEFORE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS SOME W
CENTRAL AND SW NM ZONES AND DID BRIEFLY CONSIDER ENDING THOSE LATE
MORNING TO MIDDAY AS PCPN SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DECIDED TO LET THEM BE SINCE WIND DRIVEN BLOWING SNOW WILL
LIKELY KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT HAZARDARDOUS. BLIZZARD WARNING
HIGHLIGHTS WORDING FOR THOSE AFFECTED ZONES WILL BE PLAYED DOWN
FOR AREAS ABOVE 7000 OR 7500 FT ELEVATION AS DURATION OF HEAVY
SNOW WITH THE STRONG WINDS MAY WELL BE MARGINAL...ESPECIALLY DOWN
LOWER. ALSO HAD SOME CONCERNS ABOUT RISK OF OVERUNNING PCPN IN E
CENTRAL AND NE NM BEING MORE THAN MODEL INDICATIONS...BUT UPON
LOOKING AT HOW SHALLOW THE COLD AIR APPEARED TO BE ON THE KTCC
PROFILER...FIGURED IT TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO COUNTERACT STRONG
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE DECK. STILL A
LITTLE CONCERN FOR THE ZONES IMMEDIATELY E OF THE EASTERNMOST
WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTED ZONES...BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AFTER
MAIN ISSUANCE IF NEED BE. WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL DEFINITELY BE
MAINTAINED AS IS. STRONG JET CORE ALOFT AT 100 PLUS KTS AT 500MB
AND 65 TO 80 KTS AT 700MB PLUS STRONG SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL
SUPPORT THOSE HIGHLIGHTS. WINDS DIMINISH ONLY BY AT MOST 15 TO 25
KTS LATER TONIGHT AT THOSE LEVELS SO DAY CREW MAY WANT TO...ONCE
THE MORNING INSANITY EASES...CONSIDER WHETHER ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND A LITTLE
WAYS E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON S AND
E. EASTERN PLAINS AREAS SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER MID OR
LATE EVENING DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER THIS CURRENT SYSTEM WINDS DOWN QUICKLY OVER ALL BUT THE N
CENTRAL MTNS LATER TODAY. THE WX PATTERN IS PRETTY QUIET AND OTHER
THAN A LITTLE MOSTLY LIGHT PCPN NW THIRD OR SO NEAR WEEKS
END...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...PALING IN COMPARISON TO
CURRENT ONE...LOOKS TO IMPACT NW HALF LATE IN WEEKEND.
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.AVIATION...
A WIDE RANGE OF AVIATION IMPACTS ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND STILL SOME RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID DAY OR
AROUND 18Z TO 20Z THEN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW OR A MIX AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTHWEST THEN WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 KTS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST AND A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSES THE STATE. ELSEWHERE...GUSTS OF 35 KT TO 40
KT WILL BE COMMON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 12Z BUT
GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05
.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT WINTER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. SOUTHWEST
THEN WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH
COMMON AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE USHERING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION DECREASES FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SUCH THAT ONLY ISOLATED SNOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. VENTILATION ON
WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM GOOD ACROSS THE WEST TO EXCELLENT OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE A BIT EACH DAY BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES RESULTING IN COLD NIGHTS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH
RECOVERIES.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ520>526-528-529-532>540.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ530-531.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ506>508-519.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-510>518.
&&
$$
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