FXUS63 KICT 062135
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TONIGHT-MONDAY:
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-135. PRECIPITATION THAT STARTED OUT AS DRIZZLE HAS
CHANGED OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS
CHANGED TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
TONIGHT...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
LATE THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PROVIDE
A BREAK BETWEEN WINTER STORMS ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT WINTER STORM.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW GOING
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND EXITING QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT MOST OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES
OF SNOW. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR NORTH THE WARMER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO GET...AND WHERE THE SNOW ACCUMULATION AREA WILL QUICKLY
REDUCE TO VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS BRING WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE
WICHITA AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.
NOT SURE THAT MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH...SO WILL
KEEP RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
TURNPIKE...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
RICE AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES WERE ADDED TO THE WATCH AS CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LINE TO BE SOUTH OF THERE.
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS IS...AND WOULD EXPECT
NEW HEADLINES TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY BEHIND THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS AND LEAVES SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
MORE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HAVING A SNOWPACK
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES. WE DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST.
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
TAF CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE AS THE DAY GOES ON.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA LITTLE QUICKER THAN
INITIALLY THOUGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY SWITCH OVER
TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. KRSL IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING
SNOW AND THAT WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THEY WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS VISIBILITIES DECREASE WHEN SNOW IS
HEAVER. PRECIPITATION TYPE AT KSLN WILL SWITCH OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPS COOL. AT KHUT AND KICT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
AROUND 00Z AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 04-05Z. AT KCNU MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL AS RAIN BEGINS NEAR 00Z AND SWITCHES TO SNOW AFTER
05Z AND LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD STAY AROUND 2000FT. LOW CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 21 31 27 36 / 20 10 50 70
HUTCHINSON 15 29 22 33 / 30 10 70 90
NEWTON 18 30 23 34 / 30 10 60 90
ELDORADO 18 32 24 37 / 30 10 50 70
WINFIELD-KWLD 22 34 27 40 / 20 10 40 60
RUSSELL 12 20 16 25 / 20 10 80 100
GREAT BEND 14 20 19 27 / 20 10 80 100
SALINA 16 26 22 31 / 40 10 80 100
MCPHERSON 19 28 22 32 / 40 10 70 90
COFFEYVILLE 25 39 28 43 / 30 0 30 60
CHANUTE 24 36 28 41 / 30 0 30 60
IOLA 23 36 28 40 / 40 0 30 60
PARSONS-KPPF 23 37 27 42 / 30 0 30 60
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ032-
033-047>051-067-068-082-091.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.
&&
$$
