FXUS61 KCLE 110247
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
947 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE A
COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MOVING ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO ERIE
COUNTY THIS EVENING. UPDATED TO REFINE FORECAST A BIT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MENTION HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE
CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF ERIE AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES.
WHILE LAKESHORE AREAS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 8 INCHES
OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERN PARTS OF ERIE COUNTY MAY ONLY PICK UP SEVERAL
INCHES AT MOST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO CRAWFORD COUNTY. HOWEVER...FOR THE OVERNIGHT
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN 3 INCHES ACROSS CRAWFORD CTY.
FOR NE OH...BEST FETCH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE AND
ASHTABULA CTY...BUT HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING WELL ORGANIZED.
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS ADVECTING OVER THE LAKE PREVENTING POTENTIAL
STRONGER SECOND BAND INTO NE OH FROM GETTING MORE ORGANIZED. WHILE
THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NE OH
OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST ACCUMS WILL REMAIN WITH BAND OVER ASHTABULA
LAKESHORE AREAS INTO NW PA.
ELSEWHERE. PARTLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS. FOR WESTERN ZONES...MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. RADIATING CONDITIONS NOT A FACTOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL OFF A BIT MORE FROM CURRENT TEMPS
SO LOWS AROUND 10-15 WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ON FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREAD IN
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925MB AND 8H TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
-17C PROVIDING THE INGREDIENTS FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
CONTINUING FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL LIKELY TO BE IN THE ONE TO ONE
HALF FOOT RANGE WITH ERIE COUNTY PA AND NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY
SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME
NORTHEAST MAINLY IN THE MORNING SATURDAY. SHEERING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND THEN BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NOON...AND 8H
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM SHOULD NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS OR
ONLY A LOCAL INCH OR TWO AT BEST. LIGHT PRECIP RETURNING ON SUNDAY
WITH A WARM FRONT. FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET...SNOW...SLEET
OR EVEN FREEZING RAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE NEW FORECAST WILL INCLUDE
PRECIP CHANCES ALMOST EVERY PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED. NW FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ERIE COULD LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF IS HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN MORE
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. TEMPS MONDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE VALUES EXPECTED TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT
READINGS WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY DRY AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WHILE THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS I THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE VFR
WITH JUST PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND AND UP THE LAKESHORE WHICH WILL TAKE DIRECT AIM AT KERI
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AT
KERI. THE SNOW AT KERI WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE VARIABLE ON
FRIDAY AS SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS PUSH INLAND BUT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO CALM DOWN FRIDAY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY LINGER ALONG THE LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE VFR. NON VFR DEVELOPING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED ON LAKE ERIE AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW STORM FORCE. GALE FORCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ON
THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. I
WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS UNTIL 7PM FRIDAY. WINDS MAY DROP BELOW
GALE FORCE BEFORE THAT TIME OVER THE WESTERN BASIN LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME BECOMING WESTERLY. THE LAKE
INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND IN THIS COLD AIR MASS ARE KEEPING MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE MODELS INDICATE THE FLOW WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND I WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE
FORECAST.
THE LAKE LEVELS ON THE WESTERN BASIN ARE STILL BELOW THE CRITICAL
MARK. THE LAKE CONTINUES TO SLOSH IN WAVE LIKE PATTERN (SEICHE) IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED RISE
AND FALL OF THE LAKE...LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW AND I WILL CONTINUE
THE LOW WATER ADVISORY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ012-
014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ001-
002.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ142-143-162-
163.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...GARNET
