FXUS65 KABQ 031008
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009
...SLICK TRAVEL EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO WITH UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES...
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WITHIN THE NEAR TERM INVOLVE TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES. LATEST WSR-88D TRENDS INDICATE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS LOCATED IN THE EC PLAINS...WITH THE RADAR BEAM OVERSHOOTING MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS WELL
AS UNION COUNTY. THIS BAND OF QPF JIVES WELL WITH THE LATEST NAM12
PROJECTIONS...WHICH SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K
SURFACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NEAR 0MB.
AREA OF LIFT IS NOT OVERLY INTENSE...ALTHOUGH HIGH SNOW RATIOS DUE
TO COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. THE
TUCUMCARI CITY POLICE ALREADY NOTED LIGHT ACCUMULATION IN TOWN AND
DOT CREWS HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED TO TREAT ROAD SURFACES. THIS AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER QPF TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTS AND SE PLAINS BY
EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NW MOUNTAINS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE. ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. HOPEFULLY NEW MEXICANS HAVE DUG THEIR WINTER COATS OUT
OF THE CLOSET AS READINGS SHOULD BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND 30 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE ERN PLAINS.
BRUNT OF SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEPART THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ERN
LINCOLN AND SW CHAVES COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO MATCH THE
SE PLAINS ZONES. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON REMAINING 15-25F BELOW NORMAL. NW FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO A ZONAL PATTERN ON SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL OFFER WARMER READINGS AS WELL
AS A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES...ESPECIALLY LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES...WITH ONE IMPACTING CO AND NE NM SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
RETARDING ANY POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. IT
APPEARS PCPN CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS ALONG THE CO BORDER.
A MORE POTENT CHUNK OF ENERGY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO TAP INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF IT. POPS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE EXTENDED AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT EAST WIND HAS
TRANSPORTED THE MOISTURE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IT MAY
EXTEND ALL OF THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING BEFORE SOME EROSION AND LIFTING OF CEILINGS IN THE VALLEY
FROM MID DAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. KSAF IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY LONG...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT A DRIER WESTERLY
WIND SHOULD DEVELOP BY SUNRISE FRIDAY HELPING TO STOP PRECIPITATION
AND IMPROVE CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALSO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN
ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...
BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DELIVERING
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM STARTING FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE CAN
EXPECT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 8 TO 14 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FINISH ITS SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. IN ITS WAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
12 TO 32 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED RISE IN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AGAIN AND ALLOWING
HUMIDITIES TO INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL RETURN
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS COULD
BEGIN TO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY...THEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RAMP UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING PRECIP ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 35 7 33 8 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 0 31 0 / 0 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 30 0 31 3 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 -3 34 1 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 -1 34 3 / 0 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 37 0 36 1 / 0 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 38 4 36 5 / 0 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 51 17 47 18 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 -6 26 -13 / 20 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 2 30 5 / 30 10 0 0
PECOS........................... 22 1 28 6 / 70 30 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 20 -7 26 -12 / 20 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 -12 18 -2 / 70 30 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 14 -10 21 -4 / 80 30 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 -1 29 -6 / 10 20 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 31 7 35 9 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 25 2 29 7 / 30 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 8 31 10 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 15 33 15 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 17 35 18 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 37 12 36 14 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 17 35 17 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 40 13 37 14 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 35 15 34 16 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 17 39 17 / 0 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 4 31 12 / 60 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 9 30 11 / 60 30 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 5 26 13 / 80 40 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 13 32 14 / 50 40 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 15 36 16 / 30 40 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 7 29 18 / 40 70 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 14 -3 29 7 / 80 20 0 0
RATON........................... 19 0 30 4 / 60 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 0 27 12 / 80 30 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 21 8 34 17 / 60 10 0 0
ROY............................. 17 7 31 15 / 60 30 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 8 33 15 / 70 30 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 24 12 33 18 / 70 30 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 23 9 33 18 / 60 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 14 33 20 / 60 40 5 0
PORTALES........................ 25 13 33 20 / 50 40 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 15 32 18 / 60 40 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 20 34 18 / 40 60 20 0
PICACHO......................... 30 17 32 14 / 50 70 30 0
ELK............................. 30 15 32 17 / 40 80 30 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-518-521>524-526>534-539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ535>538.
&&
$$
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