FXUS64 KHGX 011049
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MIXED BAG OF ISSUES WITH THIS UPCOMING PACKAGE. FIRST OFF
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. PER THE CURRENT RADAR/OB TRENDS...WE
SHOULD BE IN FOR A RATHER WET DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NNEWD
UP THE TX COASTLINE. HIGH POPS STILL IN ORDER AS MOISTURE WRAPS A-
ROUND THE LOW AND THE E/NELY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT HELP TO
RAISE TIDAL ISSUES FOR PARTS OF COAST ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDE
TUES AFTN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW TODAY WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROF LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDS. THERE-
AFTER WE SHOULD BE DONE WITH POPS (FOR THE TIME BEING) AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ALSO PUSHES ACROSS. USUALLY THIS BUILDING RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MEANS A QUIETER WX PERIOD.
HOWEVER A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FCST IS PLANNED FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS THE SPECTER OF WINTER WX FOR S TX LOOMS. SO AS THE
VERY COLD SFC HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE STATE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
REMAINING ACTIVE. THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS ACROSS THE
STATE WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF YET AN-
OTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES ON THU. MOISTURE
SURGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET) COMBINED
WITH THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPERATURES (A NEARLY 1036MB SFC HIGH) TO
PRESENT THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR MIX OF BOTH FOR FRI.
SO WHILE WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF TIME (AND MODEL RUNS) BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN...A BEAR WATCH IS DEFINITELY IN ORDER. 41
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECT CYCLOGENESIS TO TIGHTEN THE NORTHEASTERLY
GRADIENT THIS MORNING THEN EXPECT TO SEE WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
WINDS COME AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE EASTWARD PASSAGE OF THE
LOW. TIDE LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LOOK LIKELY AND THIS
WILL CAUSE SOME BEACH FLOODING FOR THE MOST PART. PERHAPS AN HOUR OR
SO OF HIGHER TIDE LEVELS ON BOLIVAR. PLAN TO CONTINUE THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY AS IS GIVEN THAT TIDES ARE ONLY ABOUT .4-.75' ABOVE
NORMAL. SO CURRENT EXPECTATION IS TIDES REACHING THE 3.6-3.8' RANGE
FROM FREEPORT UP THE SEASIDE COAST. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF WINDS
TREND STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
AND WITH THE CORRESPONDING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY...THEN THINGS GET
INTERESTING ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BEFORE SUNRISE AND
WELL OFFSHORE. VERY STRONG CAA WILL BRING WINDS TO HIGH END SCA AND
PERHAPS TO GALE AS THE MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER IS GOING ON INLAND.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF SEAS OF 12-14 FEET SHOW UP DURING THE PEAK
OF THE WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE TOPPED SEAS OUT AT 11 FEET.
45
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING CIGS QUICKER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT OBS
FOR IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS...OTHERWISE THE TREND OF LOWERING CIGS LOOKS
GOOD AND TIMING OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT
WELL COVERED.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 42 53 36 53 / 80 90 30 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 43 54 38 55 / 80 90 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 56 47 57 45 57 / 80 90 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
GALVESTON...MATAGORDA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
