FXUS61 KOKX 060749
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
249 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON 
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY 
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ZONAL UPPER FLOW TODAY IN WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW. GUSTY NW WINDS 
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...SOME 
CIRRUS LATE. TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE...LOWER 
40S CITY/COAST AND UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES IN CAA FLOW. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ORANGE AND PASSAIC COUNTY MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING
OUT OF THE MID 30S WITH NEWLY FALLEN SNOW COVER. WILL CONTINUE SPS
FOR BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE 
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING 
CIRRUS EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LIKELY 
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT...BUT TEMPS ACROSS FAR OUTLYING
ARES MAY STILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS...GENERALLY
20S ELSEWHERE...AROUND FREEZING NYC METRO.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY...WITH 
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND RESULTANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND THEN JUST N OF THE REGION MON EVE. LACK OF MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING WILL MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY PASSAGE...WITH HIGH
AND MID DECK MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWER LATE MONDAY/MON EVE AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...RE-INFORCING SHOT OF CAA MON NIGHT.

CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES 
FILTERED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON CIRRUS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING MIDWEST 
SYSTEM. 

WITH REGION ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS DURING 
PERIOD...TEMPS MON AND TUES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 
SEASONABLE...GENERALLY LOWER 40S CITY/COAST AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 
40 INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUES 
NIGHT. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PRIMARY LOW PASSING THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT DISAGREE ON SECONDARY LOW EVOLUTION. EITHER 
WAY...THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO WITH MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED. ENOUGH COLD 
AIR MAY HOLD ON INITIALLY FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP...PARTICULARLY 
INTERIOR ZONES...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SE TO NW.

AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...GUSTY W WINDS EXPECTED WITH COLDER TEMPS TO 
END THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE STORM DEPARTS...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL 
TERMINALS...WITH WINTRY MIX ENDING ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS BY 08Z. 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...MAINLY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 DEGREES EARLY 
THIS MORNING...12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. FEW CU EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE DAY.

WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY CIRRUS 
TO CONTEND WITH.

OUTLOOK 00Z MON THROUGH THUR...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
WED...SUB-VFR...WIND/RAIN
THU...VFR AND WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD WILL APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA 
LATER THIS MORNING...THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED OVER ALL WATERS EXPECT FOR 
NY HARBOR THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LI SOUND WATERS THROUGH LATE 
AFTERNOON.

N WINDS WILL TURN NW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS THROUGH THE WATERS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE WATERS 
BY MID-WEEK...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEXT SIGNIFICANT QPF WED AND WED NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1+ INCH OF 
LIQUID QPF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ330-
     340-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335-
     345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...NV