FXUS65 KSLC 262120 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
215 PM MST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD TODAY.  A SPLITTING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS 
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN 
PLACE ACROSS REGION...WHILE UPSTREAM...A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE WAS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG INVERSION ALOFT...TEMPERATURES HAVE 
WARMED INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH READINGS 
TOPPING 50 AT MOUNTAIN SITES.

IN ADVANCE OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER SUNNY 
DAY ON FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH SOME HAZE.  WITH INCREASING 
FLOW...SHOULD MIX ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE EFFICIENTLY THAN 
TODAY...PRODUCING HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. 

PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HANDLING OF PACIFIC SYSTEM. 
NAM...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SPLITTING SYSTEM 
WITH SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST.  DIFFERENCES 
EXIST WITH GFS PLACING SYSTEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND NAM OFFERING A 
SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD POSITION OF UPPER LOW BY SATURDAY EVENING.  
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO 
SOUTHERN UTAH...THOUGH EVEN ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BETTER 
MOISTURE EVENT FOR SOUTHERN UTAH.  GIVEN MODEL TRENDS OF DIGGING 
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...BUT STILL BOOST 
POPS AND QPF A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN ADEQUATE MOISTURE...DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN 
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 140KT 250 MB JET AND LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS UTAH.  SOUNDING AND MOISTURE 
PROFILES DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 4000 
FT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY ISSUANCE SOUTH 
CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE...SHOULD HIGHER QPF MATERIALIZE.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TODAY...WITH 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY 
CONDITIONS.  

LOOKING INTO THE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GFS...GEM AND ECMWF ALL 
INDICATE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH BACKING INTO REGION WITH AN 
ACCOMPANYING COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.  THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT A 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...FEEL CLIMO OR JUST ABOVE 
CLIMO...POPS JUSTIFIED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.   

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 
AROUND 02Z BUT REMAIN LIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL 
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...POMEROY
PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)