FXAK69 PAFG 252312
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
212 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSENSUS ON 
MAINTENANCE OF OVERALL PATTERN OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING
W OF ALASKA IN BERING AND N PACIFIC S OF ALEUTIANS...AND
RIDGING EXTENDING N ALONG W COAST OF NOAM N INTO THE YUKON
AND N.W.T THROUGH DAY SEVEN...AND PROBABLY LONGER. THUS...
MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SOME TIME.

CURRENTLY...973 MB LOW NEAR PASN FORECAST TO END UP NEAR 
PADQ LATE TOMORROW NITE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. SRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS WILL PUSH WEAK FRONTAL REMNANTS OVER WRN AK AND N 
SLOPE FURTHER N AND W TONITE AND THU. ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT-
WAVE WILL LIFT N OVER WRN INTERIOR THU THRU FRI...BRINGING
SNOW THERE AND W COASTAL ZONES. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN
ZONE 215 THU AND 216 THU NITE/FRI. NRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
ALONG W COAST SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...AND ONLY
REAL BLOWING SNOW REDUCTIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NITE ARE OVER
ST LAWRENCE.

TWO BOUTS OF SRLY CHINOOK FLOW WILL KICK WINDS UP IN THE
AK RANGE PASSES THU AND FRI AS THE WRN INTERIOR SHORT-WAVE
RIDES N IN SRLY FLOW. LOOKS TO BE ABOUT ADVISORY STRENGTH
OR LESS. MODELS ALL STILL SHOW A BUBBLE OF 0C/850MB AIR FLOWING
N OVER CENTRAL AND ERN INTERIOR FRI...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR
TEMPS. IN MID 30SF ABOVE VALLEY INVERSIONS...AND NEAR 40F AK
RANGE PASSES. 

12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING VERY DEEP 945-955 MB LOW MOVING
UP INTO SRN AND ERN BERING 120-144 HOURS. IF THIS OCCURS...
WOULD SEE WINTER STORM ISSUES MUCH OF W COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

MAR NOV 09