FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS SIMILAR TO 00Z. SOME HINTS AT PATCHY LIGHT FOG FOR THE
EARLY AM...BUT NOT BUYING INTO THAT SCENARIO RIGHT NOW. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD MOST PLACES TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AT KBPT AND KAEX BETWEEN 10-15Z...BEFORE BECOMING VFR
THROUGH THE DAY HOURS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM IS BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES. UPSLIDING BAY-OF-
CAMPECHE AIR TURNS ANTI-CYCLONICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WARM-CONVEYOR-BELT STRATUS WILL
THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY INCREASING.
FURTHER-UP...SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WESTERLIES ARE IMPINGING UPON THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE...GENERATING INTENSE SHORT-WAVES
WHICH TRAVEL NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE WEATHER
STAGE IS BEING SET FOR ANOTHER LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
AVIATION...
CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8 THOUSAND FT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WILL
BE IN LFT AND ARA AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 2-4 THOUSAND FT BETWEEN 09-15Z AREAWIDE. FOG IS NOT A
FACTOR TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST OF OUR AREA AND OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT IS DIVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS OUT
WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AND TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND VERY EVIDENT ON THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
A BIG SLOPPY MESS IS ON THE WAY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
IT LOOKS TO BE COOL, WET, AND BREEZY FROM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL THROUGH OUT THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS WELL AS OVERRUNNING RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY IN THE NW
GULF. THE ECWMF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW AS IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP THINGS
BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS
SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS OUT WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER EXPECT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD OUR WAY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BRING OUR
NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST OF OUR AREA AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OUT WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL
WATER MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH GALE CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH SEAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE GULF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 69 58 74 61 64 / 10 10 10 40 80
KBPT 70 58 75 61 63 / 10 20 20 40 80
KAEX 68 54 74 56 57 / 20 10 30 60 80
KLFT 68 54 74 60 65 / 20 10 10 20 80
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
