FXUS64 KFWD 302334
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AND A NORTH WIND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY (OR SHORTLY AFTER) AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY. THE WIND WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT WILL TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS AND THEN RAIN
RETURNS TO NORTH TEXAS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS
TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
ITS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FOR
TIMING PURPOSES IN THE SHORT AND NEAR TERM FORECAST.
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...STRONG ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO NORTH TEXAS.
THE RAIN WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT IN GENERAL THE RAIN SHOULD END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK DIRECTLY OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT FILTERING INTO NORTH
TEXAS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WITH WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SNOW MIXING WITH
RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
PREVIOUS AREA OF SNOW MENTION TO A LINE ALONG AND WEST OF
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO LOMETA. ALTHOUGH FREEZING AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THIS AREA AT THE SAME
TIME...THE GROUND AND SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW.
AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...A BROAD
TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
PENETRATE INTO NORTH TEXAS. THIS MEANS THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING A FREEZE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE LOW
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 39 49 38 47 33 / 5 80 100 40 5
WACO, TX 42 49 37 48 33 / 10 90 100 30 5
PARIS, TX 37 53 44 47 29 / 5 50 100 70 5
DENTON, TX 36 47 35 46 30 / 5 80 100 50 5
MCKINNEY, TX 36 50 38 47 31 / 5 70 100 60 5
DALLAS, TX 40 49 39 46 34 / 5 70 100 40 5
TERRELL, TX 41 52 40 47 32 / 5 70 100 50 5
CORSICANA, TX 42 50 43 48 32 / 5 70 100 40 5
TEMPLE, TX 42 48 36 50 32 / 20 90 90 30 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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