FXUS64 KLZK 252043
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LITTLE IF ANY DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS THAT 
WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. 
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL ADVERTISING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. THAT BEING SAID WILL 
SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MODELS THIS AFTERNOON.

INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORECAST 
TO WOBBLE ABOUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING 
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL 
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 
A RENEGADE FLURRY OR TWO BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT 
THIS TIME.

BREEZY WEST TO OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED A GOOD PART OF 
THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW 
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SLACKEN AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE 
SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA 
ACROSS THE NORTH QUICKLY AND WILL DROP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE 
GULF COAST SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH 
WITH HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW 
THE AREA TO DRY OUT FROM THE RECORD SETTING RAINS. MID LEVEL TROF 
WILL DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING A WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM SYSTEM 
WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE 
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. 

THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY 
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES 
AND MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF THE 
SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN COME RIGHT OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE POLAR 
JET BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. 
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH/EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE 
NEW YEAR WILL START OFF ON A VERY COLD NOTE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  39  25  39 /  10  10  10  10 
CAMDEN AR         27  50  29  48 /  10  10  10  10 
HARRISON AR       20  35  21  36 /  10  10  10  10 
HOT SPRINGS AR    25  44  27  46 /  10  10  10  10 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  25  43  27  46 /  10  10  10  10 
MONTICELLO AR     28  50  29  48 /  10  10  10  10 
MOUNT IDA AR      24  43  26  46 /  10  10  10  10 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  21  35  22  36 /  10  10  10  10 
NEWPORT AR        25  40  26  41 /  10  10  10  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     27  47  28  47 /  10  10  10  10 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   22  39  25  42 /  10  10  10  10 
SEARCY AR         25  41  27  43 /  10  10  10  10 
STUTTGART AR      27  45  28  46 /  10  10  10  10 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...46