FXUS63 KIND 270751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
SUNDAY.

AT 06Z SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND A LITTLE SNOW TO THE AREA
WAS EXITING TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATOCU EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN TO
ILLINOIS AND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS RUN. WILL USE A BLEND.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
ALREADY ARRIVED THERE. SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLEARING
LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS HAS SLOWED A LITTLE. GIVEN ALL OF THIS FEEL
THAT BULK OF AREA WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS MAY TAKE
TIL MID AFTERNOON. MAV AND MET ARE CLOSE AT MOST SITES FOR HIGHS
SO USED A BLEND MOST AREAS. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WENT COOLER
THAN MAV BUT NOT AS COLD AS MET.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND PROVIDES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT ARE SIMILAR
AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE PASSING MID CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FORCING ON SUNDAY WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT A COUPLED UPPER JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
INCREASE THE FORCING. CURRENT LOCATION OF BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SO WILL GO HIGHEST POPS THERE. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS INDICATE THAT FAR SOUTHERN AREA WILL SEE A DECENT CHANCE
FOR RAIN...SO UPPED POPS THERE TO LIKELY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS
WERE USED.

MODELS NOW INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THUS REMOVED OR CUT BACK POPS AS NECESSARY FOR
MONDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST RUN. MVFR CEILINGS 
ACROSS INDIANA...ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT 
ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON 
FRIDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A NEGATIVE CU RULE WITH CCL/S NEAR 
2000 FT SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT 
SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING. 

CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A RETURN TO VFR 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...JP