FXUS63 KIND 301053
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. 
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA 
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS BUILDING INTO THE 
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  KIND...KBMG AND KHUF WILL START AS MVFR 
CIGS WHILE TO THE NORTHWEST VFR CONDITIONS WERE THE RULE WITH CIGS 
AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET.  THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL 
TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING.  

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TOWARDS 
THE OHIO VALLEY.  HOWEVER CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CIGS 
3 TO 4 THOUSAND TO 18Z OR 19Z AND THEN SCATTERING OUT AFTER THAT.

ALL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
INTO TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY.  SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE 
OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT WHILE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE 
RULE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER IN THE NEAR TERM THEN ON
PRECIPITATION EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

AT 07Z THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED INTO KENTUCKY AND THE RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WAS NEARLY OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPPER
TROF AXIS WAS STILL TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE
WITH HANDLING OF SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL
INTERACT AND THAT OF COURSE IMPACTS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. NAM IS
THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING....WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH. BOTH
COULD BE OUTLIERS AS ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET/SREF AND EVEN THE PARALLEL
GFS RUN ARE IN BETWEEN THEIR SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD
THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS RATHER THAN EITHER THE NAM OR
THE GFS.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING /AS CAN
CURRENTLY BE SEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST IN SATELLITE IMAGES/...MODEL CU
RULES INDICATE THAT THESE SHOULD FILL BACK IN EARLY
ON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WILL START THE DAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALL AREAS THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THEM FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. MAV
NUMBERS LOOK A BIT WARM WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...SO TRIMMED A
BIT.

TONIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OUR AREA. WITH THEH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS MOST AREAS.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS IS TREK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE MOMENT AM CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. GOING WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION ALSO GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT FOR
ANY POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE. BY THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW. FACTORS AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS EVENT ARE THE
WARM GROUND /RECALL HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY/ AND AIR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID CANNOT RULE OUT
AROUND AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS GIVEN CURRENT SCENARIO. OF COURSE
THAT FORECAST WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...CS