FXUS64 KFWD 242355
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION...
SNOW IS FINALLY CLOSE TO BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. THE
BACK END OF THE SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG A JACKSBORO TO MERIDIAN.
SNOW SHOULD BE FINISHED IN FORT WORTH AROUND 615 TO 630...THROUGH
DFW AROUND 7 AND DAL AROUND 730. CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY IMPROVING
BEHIND THE SNOW WITH CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY IN BRECKENRIDGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WNW THIS EVENING...BUT WILL BEGIN
TO SLIGHTLY TAPER OFF. BY DAYBREAK...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS TO
BACK TO THE WEST AND BE AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BACK TOMORROW AMD BE SOUTHWESTERLY BY WINDSPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
85/NH
&&
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO WARNING/ADVISORY CONFIGURATION BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. 88D DATA INDICATES SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...WITH FAR WESTERN AREAS NOW OUT OF THE
FALLING SNOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW SNOW AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN AS IS THROUGH 6 PM WHEN THE
HIGH WIND WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER WARNING BOTH WILL EXPIRE.
WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL 88D LOOPS PRETTY WELL SUM UP THE
SITUATION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SAT LOOPS
SHOWS INTENSE MID/UPPER LOW NEARING GREENVILLE AS IT MOVES EAST-
NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 30 KNOTS. IT SHOULD REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AROUND 00Z (6PM). REGIONAL 88D RADAR SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SNOW NEAR A HOBART OKLAHOMA TO COLEMAN LINE AT 2PM AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AS WE RELEASE THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY THIS EVENING...BACK EDGE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA FAIRLY RAPIDLY...BRINGING AN END
TO THE SNOW ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND MID EVENING...AND OVER
THE EAST CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF THE MECHANICS AND
DYNAMIC OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. FRONTOGENETIC AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO
VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT...THUS AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE A "WHITE CHRISTMAS MORNING"...BUT SUNSHINE
SHOULD MELT MOST OF IT AWAY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL BE
GUSTY AND BRISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WIND ADVISORY WILL LINGER UNTIL
9PM...AND MIGHT BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT IF THEY DO NOT SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND QUITE COLD. OUR NEXT SYSTEM
IS SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY AS AN MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING (DFW) FOR TUESDAY MORNING IS BELOW FREEZING
WITH SATURATION EXTENDING UP TO 550MB. THUS...A WINTRY MIX IS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD WARM
ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...MELTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION.
DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 22 44 25 47 26 / 100 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 26 48 26 51 30 / 30 5 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 21 40 21 44 26 / 90 5 5 5 5
DENTON, TX 20 42 23 43 23 / 100 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 20 42 23 44 24 / 100 5 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 23 45 25 47 29 / 100 5 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 24 45 25 48 29 / 80 5 5 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 25 47 27 50 28 / 30 5 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 25 50 26 51 28 / 20 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-
095-104>107-118>123-131>134-144-145.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
101>103-116-117.
&&
$$
85/91
