FXUS63 KLMK 051707
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1207 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
QUICK CLEARING AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY THE STATE. MESONET
OBSERVATIONS FOR PRECIP THIS MORNING MAX OUT AT 0.07 INCHES IN
LINCOLN COUNTY...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH AREA WEBCAMS SHOWING
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW COVER IN THE
LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA. MORNING SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL MELT
SLOWLY AS SUN SHINES DOWN ON IT. SOME POCKETS IN SHADED AREAS MAY
STICK AROUND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
WILL HAVE ZONE UPDATE OUT SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING SNOW WORDING.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. SOME MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY SO WE WILL
MENTION WORDING ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH A DECREASE IN THE NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF EXISTING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME
AS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
BROAD 50H TROF HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF CONUS.
TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOR THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE THEN CATCH THE WARM SECTOR OF A SECOND...MORE POTENT SYSTEM
THAT ENTERS THE REGION A MERE 24 HOURS LATER. WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS USHERING BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE
LOW PROGGED TO RACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HIGHER...BUT ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THIS LOOKS TO BE MINOR FOR OUR
AREA IN COMPARISON TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT
FALLS WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH AFTER THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE PASSES...SOME SNOW WILL
FALL BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST.
MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S...THOUGH 30S WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AHEAD OF THE
MIDWEEK SYSTEM...THEN DROP TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR ALL BUT KLEX. STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL LOW
CLOUDS THERE WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS REST OF PERIOD ALL LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NO CONCERNS
VSBY-WISE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....JA
LONG TERM......JBS
AVIATION.......RJS
