FXUS62 KTAE 021933
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT PUSHING
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERE THREAT
IS RAPIDLY ENDING AS WHAT INSTABILITY THERE IS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF CLEARING OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
LOW LEVEL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO MORE LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP SATURDAY
MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVES INTO THE GULF FRIDAY AND INDUCES
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT EXPECTED. THE RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND SPREAD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATING
A COLD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST
AIR AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP REMAINING JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CWA.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD FROM
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL THEN LIFT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 00Z SUN. SATURDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER COLD RAW DAY WITH RAIN ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY TO OUR EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY AND REMAINS WITH US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE
THE COLDEST TEMPS WITH LOWER TO MID 30S COMMON. THEN MIN TEMPS
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO THE MID 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 50S SATURDAY WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE HEAVY RAIN NOW EAST OF THE FLOOD WATCH...WILL DROP THE
PRODUCT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. IN ADDITION...SURF AT AREA
BEACHES IS RUNNING 4 TO 7 FEET...WHICH IS BETTER COVERED WITH
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND WILL DROP THE HIGH SURF WARNING.
FINALLY...TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND
WITH TIDES ON THE WAY IN...FEEL ITS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING IN PLACE FOR LATER EXPIRATION. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES IN FRANKLIN COUNTY
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...A LINE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS...LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITHIN THE LINE OF HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS...PERIODS OF LIFR AND
POSSIBLY VLIFR ARE POSSIBLE. IN REGIONS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...CIGS ARE REMAINING AT MVFR LEVELS. AS THE RAIN COMES TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT...A STRATUS DECK IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CIGS WILL WAVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR IN THIS STRATUS DECK. BY LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALL TERMINALS WILL RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS DURING PAST FEW
HOURS AND WINDS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL DROP GALE WARNING IN FAVOR OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN AS THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE GULF ON
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIRMASS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY BUT WITH COOLER TEMPS AS WELL. NO FIRE WX CONCERNS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 48 64 39 55 42 / 40 0 10 40 60
PANAMA CITY 50 61 43 58 43 / 20 0 10 40 60
DOTHAN 42 56 37 53 38 / 10 0 10 20 60
ALBANY 45 59 37 57 42 / 20 0 10 20 60
VALDOSTA 50 64 39 54 42 / 40 0 10 40 60
CROSS CITY 57 69 42 60 44 / 40 10 10 50 60
APALACHICOLA 52 64 43 58 44 / 30 0 10 50 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GULF.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/HARRIGAN/FOURNIER
