FXUS62 KMHX 260054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH 
NE TO A POSITION OVER SE VIRGINIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS 
WILL ALLOW A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS 
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDS FROM
THE W EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230PM FRI..WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT TO OCC. MODERATE PCPN IS 
IMPACTING THE AREA AHEAD OF A 1006 MB TRIPLE POINT SFC LOW JUST WEST 
OF FLORENCE SC. THERE IS AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN A CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT MOVING INTO NE SC JUST 
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH A PORTION OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 22Z-03Z. SINCE VERY LITTLE 
PRECIP IS OCCURRING BEHIND THIS LINE HAVE CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED 
POPS LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY INLAND. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK 
MARGINAL AT BEST BUT WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS/SHEAR THERE IS STILL AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A STRONG TSTM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER OUR SRN CWA
AND OFFSHORE. IT IS NOTED THAT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION DOES NOT
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ANY DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOS AT THIS
POINT SO GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE FACTORS THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LOW WITH THIS EVENT.

GRADIENT SE WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...GUSTING TO 20-30MPH EVEN OUTSIDE OF PCPN AND VEERING MORE 
S TO SW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE OBX COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE HIGHER 
GUSTS PER NORMAL. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT RELAXES 
QUITE A BIT S OF THE SFC LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SE VA BY 
12Z SAT. WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OBX BUT 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IT IS NOTED THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED 
QUITE A BIT WITH THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND WHILE THE QPF SHOULD 
BE A QUICK HIT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD .5-1.25 
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN HEAVIER 
PCPN/TSTMS. TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUDINESS AND LITTLE IF
ANY CAA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH L-M50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3PM FRIDAY...SHORT TERM WX LOOKS PLEASANT AS FRONT AND 
ASSOCIATED PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDING IN 
FROM THE SW FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. FLOW ALOFT 
REMAINS MOSTLY SW AHEAD OF TROUGHING TO OUR WEST/RIDGING MOVING 
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THICKNESSES AND 
EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT...WITH 
LOW 60S ON SAT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ERN NC. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES 
COOLER ON SUN GIVEN VERY MODEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS THE 
VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SLIDES E A BIT...AND 850 TEMPS 
COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN OVER THE 
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN OCC BOUTS OF MID 
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE GOMEX...ESP SRN AREAS. ALSO NOTED THE 
12Z ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON SUN AHEAD OF A WEAK 
COLD FRONT...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER SO HAVE HELD 
OFF ADDING ANY POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MSTR TO MOVE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID LVL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE
VORTEX MOVING INTO THE NE STATES. MORE SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL KICK
IN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S OR NR 50 IF
WE ARE LUCKY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND/30S
IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY WX PERSISTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -RA ON WED AS WEAK
COASTAL TROFFING DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST...BEST CHANCES NEAR THE
S COAST. STILL LOOKING AT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AS WE MOVE INTO
THU AND THU NIGHT WITH NEXT SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 40 FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. SLIGHT WARMING TREND EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES MODERATE..ESP WITH LOW TEMPS...BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH
HIGH TEMPS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8PM FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING AS 
LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDESTORMS MOVES THROUGH. THIS LINE 
WILL BE PAST ALL TAF SITES BY 04Z OR 05Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR 
WITH FOG FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION. FOG SHOULD 
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE 
DAY ON SATURDAY.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS 
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP 
OVER THE REGION LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BUT APPEARS TO BE 
OVERDONE SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THIS 
POINT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW AND VFR 
EXPECTED THE REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 4 PM FRI...STRONG SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS REPORTED AT DIAMOND AND
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOYS SO WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING S OF OREGON
INLET. ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS IN THE SOUNDS AND N OF OREGON
INLET SFC OBS INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY 20-25 KT SO SCA HERE
LOOKS GOOD...BUT COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER PCPN
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING BUT DUE TO SHORT
DURATION WILL HANDLE ANY STRONGER WINDS WITH MWS/SMW AS NEEDED.
WAVEWATCH AND SWAN REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE BUILDING SEAS TO 10 TO 15
FEET OR SO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HIGHEST OFF OBX THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES WITH MAINLY W WINDS EXPECTED SAT AOB 15 KTS. DESPITE
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW A BUILDING ENE SWELL
FROM STORM E OF CANADIAN MARITIMES. LINGERING ESE SWELL FROM PREV
WIND EVENT COMBINED WITH THIS INCREASING ENE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS
AOB 6 FT THROUGH SUN FOR CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.

A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW REINFORCING HIGH 
PRES TO REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY STRONG W TO NW 
WINDS MON AND TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN. IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS BY WED...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALLOWS THINGS TO 
GO DOWNHILL AGAIN INTO NEXT THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...SK/RF