FXUS63 KMKX 150928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE: HIGH

CURRENTLY SEEING CLEARING SKIES WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONALLY...COLD AIR IS
POURING INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
EXPECTING NEAR STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY...SO WENT WITH
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE. THINK TEMPS WILL HANG OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WRN FORECAST AREA...AND FALL FROM AROUND
20 INTO THE TEENS TOWARD THE LAKE. IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT AT
LEAST SUNNY WITH MOST CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING.

WITH THE HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE BY DAY BREAK
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA...WITH A BIT
MORE WIND TOWARD THE LAKE KEEPING THINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LIGHT WINDS IN GENERAL WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS UNDER CONTROL...WITH
INDICIES STAYING ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF -20F.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY...AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RECOVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH UNDER UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS
DIFFER A BIT ON HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP. STAYED AWAY FROM THE
WARMEST SOLUTIONS WITH A DECENT SNOW PACK REMAINING.

.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE: LOW

A SERIES OF WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT SEEING ANYTHING THAT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT...AND MODEL AGREEMENT OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS NOT GREAT...SO JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL IS 
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND BACK EDGE WILL BE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 
AROUND 12Z. SOME SPITS OF SNOW FLURRIES AT BEST OVER LAND WITH THESE 
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED DURING 
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. CLEAR SKY FOR 
TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS COME OUT OF 
THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE MOVES EAST.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM DUE 
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS MIX 
OUT TO 2000 FEET THANKS TO WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW 40S RANGE.
WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING SPRAY TODAY 
AS WELL.  WINDS AND WAVES SETTLE DOWN AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT AS SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 
AVIATION/MARINE...AFK/34