FXUS63 KGRB 272042
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
242 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE STATE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MILD TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED ON THE WRF/GFS AT 925MB.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO 925MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S OVER THE NORTH AND NEAR 50 OVER 
THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THESE VALUES...BUT DID SUBTRACT 
A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...SAT NGT THRU NXT FRI. MDLS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
SEPARATING THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS FOR A SHORT TIME
EARLY NXT WEEK BEFORE A STG NRN STREAM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE THE STREAMS BY LATE WEEK. THERE IS
STILL A RANGE IN MDL SOLNS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SRN SYSTEM...
BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT NE WI WL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THEN IS EXACTLY WHAT
AFFECT THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER.

CDFNT EASES BY ERN WI SAT NGT WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE AS ALL THE
FORCING AND LIFT IS TRAILING WELL BACK WITH THE LONGWV TROF
SITUATED OVR THE UPR MIDWEST. PLENTY OF HI-LVL MSTR TO START THE
NGT...BUT AS THE LONGWV TROF GETS CLOSER...LOOK FOR THE LOW-LVLS
OF THE ATM TO SATURATE AS WELL. EXPECT MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA TO BE COVERED IN CLDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE CLDS SHOULD
HELP HOLD TEMPS UP THRU THE NGT WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE 20S FAR NORTH...TO THE LWR 30S NEAR LK MI.

THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPR LOW AND DRIFTS SE
INTO OLD MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NRN BRANCH CONTS EAST
AND MOVS INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN WITH A PRETTY STG SHRTWV
PUSHING THRU THE U.P. OF MI. BEST Q-G FORCING OCCURS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE VORT TRACK...THUS ANTICIPATE BETTER PCPN CHCS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MI BORDER. THAT BEING SAID...WL NEED TO CARRY
A MINIMAL POP OVR NRN WI WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH COULD SEE A FEW
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. COOLER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH MAX
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LWR 30S FAR NORTH...LWR 40S E-CNTRL WI.

NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPARTED UPR
TROF TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING UPR RDG WELL TO OUR WEST SUNDAY
NGT. DO NOT SEE ENUF DRYING OR SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLDS...
THUS MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN
EVIDENT ON THE MDLS...HOWEVER THE WNDS MAY HAVE JUST ENUF OF A NW
COMPONENT SUCH THAT A FEW LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS COULD REACH VILAS
CNTY. 

A FAST MOVG SHRTWV TROF IS FCST TO APPROACH THE WRN/NRN GREAT LKS
ON MON ACCOMPANIED BY A STG EMBEDDED SHRTWV AND A 130 KT UPR JET.
STRONGEST FORCING AND LIFT WL REACH AREAS FROM NRN WI NWD BY MON
AFTERNOON...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHWRS FROM MOVG INTO
THAT PART OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE CLDS THICKEN OVR
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS
ABV NORMAL. THIS SHRTWV TROF CONT TO DIVE SE AND REACHES THE ERN
GREAT LKS BY 12Z TUE. BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV AND LIFT
FROM THE UPR JET...THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WOULD REMAIN FROM NRN WI
NWD SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SML POPS IN THE NORTH MON EVENING AND
THEN GONE DRY OVRNGT AS THE FORCING/LIFT DEPART. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SHRTWV COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A HI PRES RDG WL
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLD CVR LTR MON NGT INTO TUE. WNDS BY TUE
AFTERNOON ARE ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY...THUS PROVIDE A
MINOR BOOST TO TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPR 30S TO
LWR 40S.

A WEAK CDFNT WL APPROACH WI TUE NGT AND MOV THRU THE RGN ON WED.
THIS FNT IS STILL FCST TO PASS THRU THE FCST AREA DRY AS ALL THE
UPR SUPPORT IS TIED UP WITH THE DEVELOPING NRN STREAM UPR TROF OVR
THE UPR MIDWEST. LOOK FOR CLDS TO BECOME MORE OF A PRESENCE OVR NE
WI ON WED...HOWEVER A TASTE OF WAA AHD OF THE UPR TROF SHOULD
BRING ONE MORE "MILD" DAY TO THE AREA. AS THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVS INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS ON THU...THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
IT WOULD APR THAT A TRUE PHASING WL NOT OCCUR...LEAVING NE WI
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NRN SYSTEM. PBLM FOR NE WI WL BE THAT
THIS TROF ITSELF MAY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPR LOW THU NGT INTO FRI
AND PRETTY MUCH NOT MOV. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPR LOW WOULD
THEN BRING PERIODIC CHCS OF LGT PCPN TO THE RGN AND HAVE MENTIONED
A CHC OF LGT SNOW FOR BOTH THU AND FRI AS A RESULT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT DUE TO FOG OVER THE FAR NORTH. SOME SITES THAT MAY
SEE FOG ARE KRHI...KEGV...KLNL...KRRL AND KTKV. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
WILL PREVAIL WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE. THE FRONT
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
ECKBERG/KALLAS