FXUS63 KIND 252037
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA 
RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 
TO MID 40S. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 
KNOTS. RADAR SHOWED A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. NATIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWED AN AREA OF 
SHOWERS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER PUSHING EASTWARD...WHICH LOOKS TO 
BE OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL BE POPS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE 
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT.

GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL TODAY...AS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE 
DEVELOPING THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TOO STRONGLY...AND GFS HAS THE 
SUPPORT OF THE SREF. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO PUSH 
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE EVENING...WITH A 
POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT. 
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
LATE...AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW EVENING. WILL 
CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF 
THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...AS A PERIOD OF MODESTLY STRONG 
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED.

THROUGHOUT THE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING SCENARIO...RAIN 
WILL LIKELY BE PREDOMINANT...WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN. 
HOWEVER...DURING THE PERIODS OF STRONGEST LIFT...AND AS THE CENTER 
OF LOWEST THICKNESSES PASS OVER MIDDAY THURSDAY...A BRIEF BURST OF 
MOSTLY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THRUST OF THIS IS THAT 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...AND GROUND 
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM...SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ON TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MAV TONIGHT WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND 
PRECIPITATION. THIS ALSO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ANTICIPATED 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND FOR TOMORROW...AS MET IS VERY COLD...BUT 
DO NOT BUY THE WARMING DEPICTED BY THE MAV ENTIRELY...AGAIN WITH 
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. TOMORROW NIGHT...A BLEND 
WAS USED AS AGREEMENT WAS EXCELLENT...AND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...USED THE WARM SIDE OF MOS...AS STRONG 
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED AND GENERALLY LEANED TO A MIX OF 
ECMWF/GEM/HPC GUIDANCE...AS THE GFS SOLUTION DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC 
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS.
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN THE RULE THIS MORNING BUT 
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IMPROVING. MODELS CONTINUED SHOWING LOTS OF LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WL JUST GO WITH MVFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THERE WERE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AROUND AND 
RAPID REFRESH MODEL WAS INDICATING INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z 
TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MIDDAY THANKSGIVING. 
SO...WL ADD VCSH THIS AFTERNOON PER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND KEEP IT 
IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST 
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE MORNING...BUT WITH THAT 
BEING THAT FAR OUT AND COVERAGE IN QUESTION...WILL JUST KEEP VCSH IN 
FOR NOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT TIME THIS 
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE 
DROPPING OFF SOME TONIGHT. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...NIELD
AVIATION...MK