FXUS64 KTSA 061138
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
HIGH CLOUDS WERE COVERING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
AT MID MORNING. BY 20Z MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KTUL/KRVS AND
KMLC. THE MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THE
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WISE...THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES ARE
THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME. HAVE PROB30'S FOR DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. COLD ENOUGH AIR MAY OCCUR AT KFYV AND KXNA FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWIFTLY TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS ERN SECTIONS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SNOW IS UNLIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH VERY DRY AIR RESIDENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION
ABOVE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER. ANY DEVELOPMENT TODAY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SFC TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE SO
EXPECT EVENT TO BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN BUT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SFC TEMPS COOL EARLY TONIGHT.
MEASURABLE PRECIP LIKELY TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ERN AREAS WHERE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT MONDAY WILL BE THE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. THE SECOND SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. TRENDED GRIDS TO THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER SOLUTIONS
OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WHICH ALL PRETTY MUCH ALSO TAKE IT ACROSS
THE OK/KS BORDER. LOW PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE OVER
NRN SECTIONS TUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY
SNOW IN OUR AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENT...NAMELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. THUS LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT...SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR TO BE VERY LIGHT.
BREEZY AND TURNING COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER US. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO NRN SECTIONS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE TEENS. SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST LATE THIS WEEK
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 29 41 34 / 20 10 10 20
FSM 43 31 48 38 / 20 40 10 30
MLC 44 30 47 38 / 20 10 10 30
BVO 42 26 41 31 / 20 10 10 20
FYV 42 31 43 34 / 20 30 10 20
BYV 41 29 42 34 / 20 30 10 20
MKO 43 31 45 35 / 20 10 10 20
MIO 44 30 41 32 / 20 20 10 20
F10 43 30 44 35 / 20 10 10 20
HHW 44 34 51 41 / 30 20 10 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...17
