FXUS64 KLCH 150552
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...
AT THIS TIME...STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THIS EVE MAINLY SOUTH OF LFT. A SCTD BAND OF LGHT SHWRS
IS FALLING ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA. CEILINGS AND BR/FG CONTS TO
BOUNCE AT ALL AVN SITES AND THIS WILL CONT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND
THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THRU TMRW MRNG. THIS WILL IMPROVE VSBY
BUT CEILING WILL REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT MAINLY IFR WX EXPECTED BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CONDITIONS MAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LA AROUND THE RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
UPDATE...
RATHER MESSY WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FIRST...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACRS PORTIONS OF SE TX THIS
EVENING WITH OBSERVATIONS AT KBPT AND KORG SHOWING VISIBILITIES OF
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE. VISIBILITIES DROPPED BRIEFLY AT KLCH
A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT HAVE SINCE RISEN. HOWEVER...STILL
THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACRS SW
LA TONIGHT AS MET AND MAV GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ALSO.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX AND SW LA FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
BY THIS TIME...AND EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
SECONDLY...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL NOTED ACRS THE
AREA. THIS BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BTR SW TOWARD THE
COAST NEAR PECAN ISLAND AND OVER THE NW GULF. THIS BAND HAS SHOWED
LITTLE EWRD PROGRESS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN
OFFSHORE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO TRAIN OVER THIS AREA /WHERE NEARLY 10
INCHES OF RAIN FELL LAST WEEK/ THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS HIGH AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING
EXTENDED.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POISED
ACRS NRN LA INTO CNTRL TX...WITH SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN.
FOR THE MARINE ZONES...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 20 NM
AS WARM MOIST AIR OVERRIDES THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO DISSIPATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIP SHOWING RAINS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST...TO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR OPELOUSAS. WITH THE ONSET OF ACTIVITY WENT
AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE BEGINNING TIME FOR OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE HAVE EXTENDED WATCH LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY EXTENDED WATCH INTO OUR NORTHEAST PARISHES OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. INITIAL THINKING WAS THAT HEAVY RAINS WOULD COME ALONG
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT MAY YET BE THE CASE. THUS A DEFINITE
CONCERN FOR FLOODING RAINS.
EXTENDED WATCH IN TIME WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
BOUNDARY. ALSO MODELS SHOWING SOME HEAVIER POST-FRONTAL RAINS
INTO TUESDAY. WARM FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCING IN LATE THIS MORNING
AND THE INCREASING CONVECTION TOOK CARE OF AN EXTENDED FOG
PROBLEM...BUT COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN RAINS OVERNIGHT. JUST
WORDED FORECAST WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND
INLAND.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED AREA DRYING OUT FOR MID-WEEK BUT NOW
HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF NEWER RUNS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING
AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR RAINS THURSDAY PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS ASSOCIATED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TUESDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR SHORE TO
6 TO 9 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 61 42 58 41 / 80 70 10 10 10
KBPT 57 60 44 58 41 / 80 60 10 10 10
KAEX 51 56 38 58 39 / 80 60 10 10 10
KLFT 60 60 42 59 41 / 80 80 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
VERMILION.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU...CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
