FXUS65 KPSR 010305
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
800 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SCATTERED DESERT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN AZ SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WAS
LOCATED 240 MILES SOUTH OF TUCSON IN NORTHWEST MEXICO AT 03Z. THIS
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHWEST TEXAS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR HERMOSILLO IN FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO AWAY FROM OUR AREA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...OTHER THAN DECREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND
IT WILL BE COLDER TONIGHT.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA...UTAH...AND NEW MEXICO
WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING BREEZINESS BY THIS EVENING.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEVADA AND
UTAH WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FROM THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ANCHORED IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO MONDAY...THEN SWING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WRAPPED INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM AS THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM FROM THE WEST MOVES IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR OUR AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...THERE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK
AS IF OUR WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED. UPCOMING SHIFTS WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL AS THE WINDS...
AND COOL DOWN THE TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.
&&
AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WED.
SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...
BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA...WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS. BY FRIDAY
...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE WEST COAST...THUS INCREASING THE WINDS AND
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
