FXUS64 KBMX 262042
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GOOD COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE BEEN CLEAR ALL DAY BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY MANAGED THE 50S
MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS SHOULD LESSEN OVERNIGHT BUT NEVER CALM AND THIS
SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM COOLING POTENTIAL WITH LOWS FALLING OFF TO
NUMBERS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE VERY PLEASANT DAYS AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND 60S SATURDAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE. COOL
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 30S. NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND MODIFYING AIRMASS YIELDING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE NEXT RAIN MAKER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF ALABAMA DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO ALABAMA ON MONDAY. EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER AROUND THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST
AND THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. THUS THE AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF ANY PRECIPITATION BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MEX POP/TEMP NUMBERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST QUICKLY BECOMES MESSY AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW, THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO,
BEGINS A QUICK TRANSITION EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS. RAIN
SPREADS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO, MAINLY WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING BY THURSDAY. WITH ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND RAIN...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK AND USED A BLEND OF HPC/MEX/MEN. LOWS SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. ALL NORTHERN SITES ARE SEEING GUSTS TO 15-18 KTS
ALREADY...AND MGM/TOI SHOULD SEE THEM BY 19Z. THESE WINDS SHOULD
RELAX BY 23-00Z AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE STATE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 30 54 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANNISTON 33 55 32 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 34 55 36 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 34 58 33 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
CALERA 34 57 35 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUBURN 30 57 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
MONTGOMERY 32 59 33 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
TROY 30 59 33 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
88/88/27
