FXUS61 KPBZ 111424
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
924 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SUNNY BUT COLD 
WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL RESULT IN GUSTY 
WINDS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TONIGHT. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
YESTERDAYS BELOW NORMAL NUMBERS. WENT A BIT UNDER MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING AND CLEARING
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY 
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE AS A PAIR 
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST 
SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. GENERAL TREND OF THE FORECAST 
REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A CHANCE
FOR SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH ALLOWS
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT
MOST PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL
LOCATIONS. THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...SWEEPING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS SOME...WITH
MID RANGE CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE. WILL ALSO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY IN WARMER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH 50S POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF PIT. COLDER AIR/TROUGHINESS WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AT ALL PORTS EXCEPT FKL AND DUJ 
WHERE CONTINUED COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL 
STRATOCUMULUS AND SOME SNOW FLURRIES.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN 
TIGHT TODAY BETWEEN NEWFOUNDLAND LOW PRESSURE AND TENNESSEE HIGH,
SO THAT COLD FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

BY TONIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY WHICH WILL 
DIMINISH AND BACK THE SURFACE WIND MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTH 
BY SATURDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS GENERATE VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF 
OF THE WEEKEND.

FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK 
BEGINNING WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION EPISODE EARLY ON SUNDAY AS  
MOISTURE MOBILIZES WITH THE ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE IN ZONAL TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$