FXUS62 KMFL 252006
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO
HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT OF
THE WIND AROUND THE LAKE AREA FROM THE NORTH BUT LIGHT. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY ISOBARIC ANALYSIS. ACTUAL TEMP/DEW POINT BOUNDARY
IS STILL NORTH OF THE LAKE. AT THE UPPER LEVELS WATER VAPOR LOOP
ALONG WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LATEST SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THESE PLAYERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GFS...NAM...AND
ECMWF SHOWING UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TROUGH IS PUSHED OUT OF
THE AREA BY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE STILL HANG ON TO POPS OF 70 TO
90% ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ENSEMBLE BASED EKDMOS BEING A BIT
LOWER BUT STILL LIKELY.
LOCAL WRF...WHICH HAS GENERALLY HANDLED THIS EVENT PRETTY WELL
ILLUSTRATES CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUING WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF CWA AT THE PRESENT TIME CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...ALBEIT NOT AS MUCH
IN COVERAGE COMING IN OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT BEGINS
TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE
ON THE DECLINE PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.
BY THIS TIME THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OUT PRETTY GOOD AND
WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...SEE NO THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY PUSHING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND HEADING EAST AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST STRONG CAA WILL TAKE
PLACE RESULTING IN A DRY AND COLD END OF THE WEEK REMAINING DRY
AND COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
WARM UP AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUSH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK). SO AT THIS
TIME...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A CONTINUING WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME.
.MARINE...BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SEEMS BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. WITH
WINDS OPPOSING GULF STREAM CURRENT ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WITH SYSTEM MOVING OF THE EAST
COAST...A SMALL NE SWELL OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK...FRIDAY...FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD OR
SO. AT THIS TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS BUT TOO EARLY
TO MAKE THAT DETERMINATION NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GIVEN WIND FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE EVENT MIGHT NOT RISE TO RED FLAG LEVELS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY AND WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE END UP NEEDING FIRE WEATHER WATCHES TOMORROW FOR
POTENTIAL RED FLAG EVENT FRIDAY OR EVEN SATURDAY. IN FACT...ONE OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH OCCASIONALLY HANDLES MIXING WELL...DOES BRING
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT YET BUT IT IS CLOSE.
SO WILL MONITOR THIS AS TIME PROGRESSES AND TAKE ACTION ACCORDINGLY
WHEN TIME COMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 79 53 70 / 80 60 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 79 57 71 / 80 60 10 -
MIAMI 69 81 58 71 / 80 60 10 -
NAPLES 66 76 56 69 / 80 30 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...52/PS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...50/RLP
