FXUS64 KBMX 012336
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED APPROX 160 MILES SOUTH OF THE TX/LA COASTLINE...AS AN
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO WESTERN TX. OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM NORTHWARD. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. RAIN CREEPING NORTHWARD AS
WELL...WITH LIGHT RAIN NOW BEING REPORTED AT TROY AND GREENVILLE.
TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST...AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE SURFACE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LLJ WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO TN...AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
HIGH...AND IF THE SUN IS ABLE TO BREAK OUT TOMORROW AFTN AND MIX
THOSE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING...LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND WHETHER
OR NOT ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA BEFORE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA.
INSTABILITIES ARE RATHER LIMITED BUT WITH A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM...CANT RULE IT OUT COMPLETELY. THERE COULD BE A SMALL
TIMEFRAME AFTER 3AM...WHERE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS TO OUR SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN STEADY...DROPPING A FEW DEGREES
AFTER SUNSET...AND INCREASING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
GENERALLY UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. TOMORROW MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHWEST...AND WARM TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS
TO EXIT THE REGION. BY SUNSET...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW 50IN THE SOUTHEAST.
TOMORROW NIGHT...A BRISK NORTH WIND WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
14
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTH MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER DUE TO
STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL ADVECTION AND THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ENOUGH
SURFACE WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MIXED UP. MAXIMUM COOLING
POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
BE VERY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
OF NOTABLE INTEREST IS A SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM THAT
AT TIMES TRIES TO GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF FRIDAY
EVENING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH THIS FEATURE AND
12Z MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION. EVEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WOULD ONLY PRESENT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. THUS...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
SOME MODEST WARMING BEGINS SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS RETURNS TO THE AREA BY
MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
88
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS RAIN/WIND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SFC
LOW TONIGHT INTO WED FROM THE SW INTO CENTRAL AL. PRECIP IS MAINLY
EXPECTED TO BE STRATIFORM RAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUT TS IN TAFS. HOWEVER...MGM/TOI WILL BE UNDER A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WITH MAXIMA GOING RIGHT OVER THESE TERMINALS...HAVE INSERTED LLWS
FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. WINDS OVERALL WILL INCREASE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH TEMPORARY IFR CIGS AFTER 06Z...THEN MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST/SE WILL LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE VEERING FROM ERLY BECOMING SE/SSE LATE THROUGH 12Z...THEN
MAINLY SOUTHWEST AFTER 12Z. OVERALL SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
KSL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 48 55 37 48 31 / 90 90 40 10 0
ANNISTON 50 57 39 52 33 / 100 90 30 10 0
BIRMINGHAM 50 54 39 50 32 / 90 90 30 10 0
TUSCALOOSA 50 54 39 51 33 / 90 70 20 10 0
CALERA 50 55 41 51 33 / 100 90 20 10 0
AUBURN 50 57 43 54 35 / 100 90 20 10 0
MONTGOMERY 52 60 43 57 34 / 100 90 20 10 0
TROY 51 62 43 57 33 / 100 90 20 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR
TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-
RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-DALLAS-AUTAUGA
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
&&
$$
KSL
