FXUS65 KABQ 291025
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WINTER WEATHER EVENT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH LONG
DURATION SNOW POSSIBLE OVER SRN AREAS.
STORM NOW OVER SRN CA AND HAS SLOWED. IT WILL DRIFT S OVER NRN BAJA
CA TODAY BEFORE EJECTING TO THE E ON MON AND TUE ACROSS NRN MEXICO
AND W TX. PRECIP OVER THE N AND E WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND TON WITH
ACTION SHIFTING TO OUR SW AND SC ZONES TON THROUGH MON NIGHT AND
OVER THE SE ZONES MON THROUGH TUE.
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE SC AND EC ZONES THIS AM...WHILE ACTIVITY
IN THE W IS MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S
THROUGH MOST OF THE ERN PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER THE NW AND NC TODAY.
AS TEMPS FALL OVER THE NE AND EC PLAINS SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AN INCH
OR SO TODAY...BUT MOST ROADS SHOULD JUST BE WET.
WILL UPGRADE WATCH OVER SW AND SC MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING FROM TODAY
THROUGH MON NIGHT OVER THE SW AND THROUGH TUE OVER THE SC MOUNTAINS.
WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION SRN TIER ZONES FOR TON
THROUGH TUE. SW AND ESPECIALLY SC MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW...WITH ONE TO TWO FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE STORM WILL TAKE ITS TIME LEAVING NM AND MAY LINGER THROUGH TUE
OVER OUR SE ZONES. THEN A MAINLY DRY AND CHILLY NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WED INTO
THU COULD RESULT IN LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND E
SLOPE AREAS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
SNOW WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTH CENTRAL NM ACROSS TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIFR TO OCCASIONAL VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE COMMON
IN THIS AREA IN SNOW AND FOG. MTN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED. RAIN OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE BETTER...GENERALLY
VFR...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
AT KABQ. ACROSS THE WEST...SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG WILL RESULT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF FZFG AT KGUP WILL RESULT IN ABRUPTLY CHANGING
VSBYS FROM VLIFR TO VFR...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...WHERE IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE COMMON IN LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BENEFIT FROM SOME PRECIPITATION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
LATER TODAY...ACROSS THE SOUTH. SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF I-40...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-40. A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS COOLER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL
ONLY FALL TO 50 PERCENT AT THE WORST...AS MAX TEMPS TODAY ONLY REACH
THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH IS 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENTILATION
WILL GENERALLY BE POOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...WITH FAIR
TO GOOD READINGS ELSEWHERE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT.
PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVENT WARMING. POOR TO
FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 45 25 47 22 / 50 10 5 5
DULCE........................... 44 16 45 11 / 60 10 5 5
CUBA............................ 41 17 42 15 / 60 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 43 21 44 16 / 50 20 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 41 19 40 15 / 50 30 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 42 21 42 17 / 50 20 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 44 19 42 14 / 50 40 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 50 30 48 24 / 50 50 60 30
CHAMA........................... 40 9 43 8 / 60 20 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 18 39 17 / 60 20 10 10
PECOS........................... 40 18 43 16 / 60 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 8 41 9 / 60 20 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 34 6 37 9 / 70 20 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 8 38 7 / 60 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 40 14 43 13 / 60 10 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 42 22 48 19 / 60 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 40 20 42 17 / 60 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 23 43 21 / 60 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 27 44 23 / 50 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 30 45 27 / 50 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 27 46 25 / 50 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 44 29 45 26 / 50 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 25 47 24 / 50 30 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 29 45 26 / 50 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 47 30 44 25 / 50 60 60 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 21 40 20 / 60 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 19 39 21 / 60 20 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 21 37 20 / 60 20 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 24 42 21 / 60 50 30 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 29 39 21 / 60 60 60 60
RUIDOSO......................... 41 23 31 21 / 60 70 80 80
CAPULIN......................... 36 14 45 22 / 60 5 5 10
RATON........................... 38 16 48 17 / 60 10 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 18 41 21 / 70 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 39 24 50 26 / 50 5 5 10
ROY............................. 39 24 47 28 / 60 10 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 42 25 49 25 / 60 10 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 25 47 25 / 70 20 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 41 24 48 25 / 60 10 5 30
CLOVIS.......................... 43 25 44 27 / 70 10 10 60
PORTALES........................ 44 26 44 27 / 70 20 20 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 25 45 24 / 70 20 20 60
ROSWELL......................... 48 30 40 27 / 60 50 60 60
PICACHO......................... 47 28 37 25 / 60 60 70 90
ELK............................. 43 26 32 22 / 60 60 80 80
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ520-524-525-536-537.
WINTER STORM WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ538>540.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>504-506-517-518-521>523-527>529.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.
&&
$$
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