FXUS64 KMAF 011947
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES UPPER LOW MOVING ACRS TRANS PECOS AND IS
NEAR MRF. CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS GENERALLY
DECREASING HOWEVER LOW IS STILL IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
PRECIP ACRS PB. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE U30S TO N40
AND AS SUCH WILL OPT TO CANCEL WSW AT 21Z. THIS EVENING PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO "WRAP AROUND" AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY MODELS
LAST FEW DAYS AND STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST
THRU 06Z...1/2-1" POSSIBLE. PROBABILISTIC SREF FCST ENDS SNOW AT
06Z. AS MID/UPPER LOW MOVES E WED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO M40S ACRS PB WED. MEANWHILE A COLD 5H
TROF PENWHEELS AROUND THRU NRN HIGH PLAINS OPENING DOOR FOR ARCTIC
AIR TO PLUNGE S. MEANWHILE A N/S ORIENTED JET WILL DIVE SWD HARD
THRU THE NRN ROCKY MTNS LATE WED ARRIVING IN CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS
THUR PM. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE WELL IN PLACE THUR AFTERNOON AND HIGH
TEMPS IN 30S ARE VERY REALISTIC ACRS PB/SE NM. PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE THUR ACRS E/NE NM. BY FRI MORNING MID
LEVEL TROF ASSOCD WITH JET WILL BE NEARING AND LIFT INVOF LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION WILL INCREASE AND PRECIP/SNOW WILL START TO
DEVELOP ACRS SE NM PLAINS/NW PB. ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET
WITH SREF PROBABILISTIC FCST SUGGESTING A LARGE PART OF SE NM/PB
HAVING A 30-70% PROBABILITY OF SNOW GREATER THAN 1". BY 00Z/SAT
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE E AND PRECIP CHANCE WILL BE ENDING.
COMBINATION OF PRECIP AND ARCTIC AIR FRI WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 30S AGAIN. WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR WATER ON ROADWAYS TO RE-FREEZE
TONIGHT...COLD TEMPS THUR/FRI...AND SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THUR NIGHT/FRI
MORNING. SAT 85H TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM ABOVE 0C BUT
WILL STILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS LIKELY ONLY IN THE 40S/50S. MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY SUN WHICH FAVORS WARMING...HOWEVER
FRONT WILL BE SLIDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND MAY HAVE ENUF
MOMENTUM TO MOVE INTO W TX MON AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS SOME.
POSSIBLY MORE PRECIP TUE BUT MORESO N.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 33 46 28 34 / 40 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 31 47 28 35 / 30 10 20 20
DRYDEN TX 37 59 35 46 / 20 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 33 51 30 41 / 30 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 25 46 26 39 / 30 10 20 10
HOBBS NM 30 45 27 32 / 40 10 20 30
MARFA TX 25 50 25 46 / 30 10 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 30 47 26 35 / 40 10 0 10
ODESSA TX 30 46 26 35 / 40 10 0 10
WINK TX 34 50 29 37 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
OF EDDY COUNTY.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
MOUNTAINS AREA...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
WINKLER.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAWSON...GAINES...MARTIN.
&&
$$
