FXUS62 KMHX 300237
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
935 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE W MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TUESDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SW
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FCST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATED PLANNED. MILD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
WAA AND S-SW BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W
MON. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPECT DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHRA INLAND LATE. WILL CONT WITH HIGH CHC POPS DEEP
INLAND TO SLIGHT OR NO CHC IMD CST AFT 18Z. WITH POSS A LITTLE SUN
FIRST PART OF DAY THINK A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH 70 INLAND. BEST RAIN
CHC WILL OCCUR FROM 23Z TO 04Z AS FRONT CROSSES. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE TIME FRAME WITH BEST CHCS NE SECTIONS.
RAIN WILL END AFT 06Z AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR
QUICKLY SPREAD IN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND
TO MID/UPR 40S BEACHES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUE
AND SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT WITH DRY COOL WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS
TUE MAINLY 55 TO 60 WITH LOWS TUE NIGHT UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S
OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUN...MDLS CONT TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RATHER
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM LATER WED INTO THU. UPR LOW OVER TX WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NE. SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NE TO THE W OF THE AREA LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. AS THIS LOW PASSES
TO THE W IT WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE REGION WITH
STRONG ISENT LIFT PRODUCING GOOD CVRG OF SHRA LATE WED AND ESPCLY WED
NIGHT. INCREASING SRLY FLOW IN WARM SECTOR LATER WED NIGHT MAY
DRAW ENOUGH INSTAB ONSHORE FOR THREAT OF A FEW TSRA AND GIVEN WIND
FIELDS WOULD HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH POSS SEVERE WEATHER WITH
ANY CONVECTION. DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS POINT. STRONG
SE TO S WINDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU AND MAY HAVE TO
DEAL WITH WIND ADVRY AND COASTAL FLOOD/HIGH SURF THREATS AS WELL
ESPCLY SINCE WILL BE IN VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDE CYCLE. WILL KEEP POPS
IN LIKELY RANGE FOR NOW WED NIGHT INTO THU SINCE STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH/ADJUST. WILL BE MILD WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS THU
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 60S BEFORE ANY CAA
DEVELOPS. THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS HIGH PRES
TO THE SW GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHRT WV TROF. S-SW BREEZE WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT...THUS VFR
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTS DURING DAY MON WITH
CLOUD COVER INCREASING AS WELL. BAND OF SHRA LIKELY AHEAD OF FRONT
DURING LATE AFTN WITH ASSCTD MVFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SYSTEM TO MOVE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE
WINDS START TO PICK UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CIG/VIS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KTS OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT.
WINDS OVER SRN WATERS STILL 10-12 KTS WITH WEAKER GRAD...BUT ALL
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS CONTINUITY OF WINDS INCREASING THERE AS
WELL. ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT KEPT CURRENT FCST TREND
FOR OVERNIGHT. SAME FOR SEAS TO REFLECT CURRENT 2-3 FT OBS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/JBM
MARINE...JBM
