FXUS62 KMHX 260230
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
930 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH NE THROUGH
THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN ASSOCD WITH SFC LOW OFF THE SC COAST GRZZING THE COAST THIS
EVE. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY OFFSHORE AS ATTENDANT
MID LEVEL TROF MOVES OFFSHORE OVRNGT. 

OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS CONITNUES OVER THE AREA AND WILL
BE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT SO HAVE NOT GONE QUITE AS COOL AS
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT DID NUDGE DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MOST LOCALES WITH L-M40S EXPECTED MOST SPOTS EXCEPT
U40S/NEAR 50 IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS SHUD HELP MITIGATE FOG
FORMATION BUT EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AS TEMPS COOL TO NEAR DEW POINTS OVER ALREADY WET
GROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM.
WITH LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE THE OBX TOMORROW HAVE KEPT IN 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THERE EARLY BUT OVERALL HAVE TRIMMED THINGS
BACK A BIT BASED ON TODAYS RATHER DRY 12Z GUIDANCE. ALSO THINK WE
WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW WITH MEAN RH COMING DOWN
WITH DEEP LAYER SW FLOW DVLPG AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROF TO OUR
WEST. HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THU NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST PARTS...AS STRONG H5 TROF NEARS FROM THE WEST YIELDING
GOOD PVA OVER THE AREA AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING DRY WX FRI THROUGH SUN AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS FROM THE W/SW. HOWEVER...STILL A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME INSTABILITY -SHRA ON FRI WITH VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE REGION.

STILL LOOKING A BIT WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE SUN AND LIGHT W TO SW 
FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. 
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT LOWER 60S NEAR 
THE OUTER BANKS WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND NLY FLOW WEST OF LOW 
PRES OFFSHORE. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/CAA PATTERN LEAVES COOLER WX 
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY ANY SPOTS 
WILL DECOUPLE ON THU NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES 
TO OUR NE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR SW...THINK CAA WILL STILL ALLOW MOST 
INLAND LOCATIONS TO FALL TO NEAR 40 WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IMMEDIATE 
COAST. FAIRLY BLUSTERY BLACK FRIDAY EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW W/NW WINDS TO GUST INTO THE 20-25MPH RANGE AND
HIGHS NOT SURPASSING THE MID 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WED...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY WITH GFS/ECMWF ON HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. 
THE ECMWF SHOWS FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE 
FORMING ALONG IT WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHENING ALONG THE COAST. HPC 
HAS FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NC EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS 
FAVORING THE ECMWF. SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT SOLUTION. HIGHS 
GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SFC SATURATION...AND COULD SEE SOME IFR
AT KPGV AND KISO IF CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT. VFR PREVAILING THU
AS WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES NE AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM W.

STRONG CAA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 
25 KT. HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO 
MON.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS MARGINALLY NEAR 6 FT OVER NRN HALF
OF OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT-THU...WHILE INCREASING NRLY WINDS
WILL BUILD SEAS OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THUS
CONTINUED SCA NRN WATERS AND POSTED FOR SRN WATERS. EXPECT SCA
WINDS ALL WATERS FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. HIGHER SEAS WILL LINGER INTO SAT
EVENING OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM SW MON
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONT APPROACHES FROM W.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY 
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...BTC/JBM
MARINE...BTC/JBM