FXUS62 KMHX 250732
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
232 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING. A
WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...A VERY ACTIVE 24 HOURS IN STORE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE AREA. WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE ONSET OF PRECIP WITH
SHOWERS CONFINED TO WESTERN QUARTER OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z.
WENT NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. AFTER 18Z WENT FOR CATEGORICAL POPS
WEST TO LIKELY EAST. NO THUNDER MENTIONED AS ANY INSTABILITY DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THIS EVENING. MAV MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOKED A FEW
DEGREES TOO LOW IN SPOTS...WHILE THE NAM HIGHS LOOKED A FEW
DEGREES TOO WARM IN SPOTS...SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BUT FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
TAPERED POPS FROM LIKELY WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST. FRONT WILL
SWEEP OFF THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SO CONFINED POPS TO
BEFORE 14Z AND THEN MAINLY FROM THE OUTER BANKS EAST. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GFS ENSEMBLE HINTING AT A WEAK DRY SURGE COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 
TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL HELP 
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER EASTERN 
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BY WEDNESDAY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL SKIRT THE 
COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION OVER CWA 
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...WARM FRONT TO THE S WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS N INCREASING ISENT
LIFT WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY WIDESPREAD RAIN.
FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS WILL BE FROM 18Z
ON. COULD SEE SOME OCNL BKN MVFR CIGS THOUGH THE MORN AS WELL PER
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON FRONT TO
THE W...WILL SEE SE TO S WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AFT
03Z FROM SW TO NE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
E. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHLD ERODE SAT WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW
IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH VFR EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING ON.

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS 
IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. GFS IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP 
OVER THE REGION LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF...BUT APPEARS TO BE 
OVERDONE SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT THIS 
POINT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT W/NW FLOW AND VFR 
EXPECTED THE REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 120 AM FRI...WARM FRONT TO THE SE WILL LIFT N AND CROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS N A WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
TO THE W WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. MDLS
FAIRLY CLOSE SHOWING BEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORN/EARLY
AFTN SRN WTRS AND SPREADING N INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COLD
SPELL PAST FEW DAYS HAS LOWERED WATER TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR MOST
NEAR SHORE WTRS HOWEVER WATER TEMPS ARE QUITE MILD AT BUOY 41025
SO THINK DECENT MIXING WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW END GALE STARTING AT 18Z FROM OREGON INLET
S. FOR NRN WTRS AND SOUNDS FEEL COLD WTR WILL LIMIT MIXING AND
KEPT SCA HEADLINE. WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FAIRLY CLOSE AND BUILDS SEAS
TO 10 TO 15 FEET OR SO...HIGHEST OFF OBX THIS EVENING. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW AND SEAS IN SURF ZONE AOA 8FT HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVRY FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM CAPE HAT S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH
MAINLY W WINDS EXPECTED SAT AOB 15 KTS. DESPITE LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW WAVEWATCH CONTS TO SHOW A BUILDING ENE SWELL FROM STORM E OF
CANADIAN MARITIMES. LINGERING ESE SWELL FROM PREV WIND EVENT
COMBINED WITH THIS INCREASING ENE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS AOB 6 FT
THROUGH SUN FOR CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.

A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW REINFORCING HIGH 
PRES TO REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO FAIRLY STRONG W TO NW 
WINDS MON AND TUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN. IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS BY WED...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ALLOWS THINGS TO 
GO DOWNHILL AGAIN INTO NEXT THU.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR 
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...RF/MW
MARINE...RF/MW